Alaska "finds" one third of missing votes...

Seriously, Alaska...WTF?

Remember how I was asking what happened in Alaska? How was it that the most watched, most high-octane presidential election, one in which Alaska's OWN GOVERNOR was running, elicited the lowest turnout for a presidential election ever?

As Jon Stewart would say, "Funny story..."

The Anchorage Daily, our new favorite northern newspaper reports that a bunch-a votes were found. Could it possibly change the state of Ted Stevens race? You betcha!

Sen. Ted Stevens leads Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by about 3,000 votes with roughly 30 percent of the ballots remaining to be counted, including:

• 61,000 absentee votes.
• More than 20,000 questioned ballots.
• 9,500 early votes.

For now, more than 90,000 votes remain uncounted. More than 224,000 votes were cast on Election Day.

See, 90,000 votes out of 224,000, that's like what those scientific types call a "non-negligible percentage."

Seriously, Alaska. WTF.

CONTINUE READING...

What happened in Alaska?

Shannyn Moore has questions, and now so do I.

Four years ago, 313,592 out of 474,740 registered voters in Alaska participated in the election-a 66% turnout. Taking into account 49,000 outstanding ballots, on Tuesday 272,633 out of 495,731 registered Alaskans showed up at the polls; a turnout of 54.9%. That’s a decrease of more than 11% in voter turnout even though passions ran high for and against Barack Obama, as well as for and against Sarah Palin! This year, early voters set a new record. As of last Thursday, with 4 days left to vote early, 15,000 Alaskans showed up-shattering the old record set in 2004 by 28%! Consider the most popular governor in history-and now the most polarizing-was on the Republican ticket. Consider the historic nature of this race; the first African American presidential candidate EVER! The second woman to ever make a presidential ticket; and she’s one of our own. Despite that, we’re supposed to believe that overall participation DECREASED by 11%. Not only that, but this historic election both nationally and for Alaska HAD THE LOWEST ALASKA TURNOUT FOR A PRESIDENTIAL RACE EVER!!! That makes sense. REALLY??? Something stinks.

There's more

in Shannyn's update.

Nate Silver, our beloved Inside Baseball guru, has this to say: "It seems unlikely that turnout would drop by 14 percent in Alaska given the presence of both a high-profile senate race and Sarah Palin at the top of the ticket...But even if Begich were to make up ground and win a narrow victory, this would seem to represent a catastrophic failure of polling, as three polls conducted following the guilty verdict in Stevens' corruption trial had Begich leading by margins of 7, 8 and 22 points, respectively."

CONTINUE READING...

SPEAK UP AND BE COUNTED

THE ELECTION IS TOMORROW!!!

It's the night before the big day and you're biting your nails at home, and glued to MSNBCNNABC-SPAN. Got the computer on and your browser already set to track? Here are a few other things you can do while-U-wait.

• Text message your friends in swing states--Make sure they vote!
  
• Call your friends, especially the ones who always leave stuff to the last minute. You know who they are. GET THEM OUT OF BED and TELL THEM TO VOTE
• Remind everyone to CHECK THE ADDRESS OF THEIR POLLING PLACE. Sometimes it changes from year to year. Maybe they didn't get their voter information booklet, or they lost it. Have them visit Vote411.org to look up their polling place BEFORE they leave the house.
  
• Add the Facebook "Causes" application to donate your "status" to update automatically and remind everyone to vote.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

GET OUT THERE AND VOTE!!!!

First of all, of course, if you haven't already, get out there and VOTE! Now everyone, I don't want to make too much of this, but my friend Becca reported that the line for early voting was two hours long yesterday-- this is at City Hall in San Francisco-- and we're not exactly experiencing swing state frenzy here.If you're joining in that great American pastime of standing in line, as the Scouts of America like to say, Be Prepared:

• Call some friends in your neighborhood and go together.
  
• Take a book or magazine with you.
• Take a sandwich and maybe a bottle of water with you.
  
• Take your cell phone and call friends to remind them to vote while you wait.
  

SPEAK UP AND BE COUNTED

• Are you seeing problems or have YOU had trouble voting? Call the free hotlines: 1-866-MYVOTE1, 1-866-OUR-VOTE or 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (en Español).
• If you have been PURGED from the rolls
• If you get there and they tell you you can't vote even though you know you're registered
• If they tell you your address was wrong
• That you have parking tickets so you can't vote
• Don't take NO for an answer. THEY MUST ALLOW YOU TO CAST A PROVISIONAL BALLOT. Do it, then call 1-866-MYVOTE1, 1-866-OUR-VOTE or 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (en Español).
  

• CHECK YOUR VOTE. Ballot problems, voting machine errors are expected to plague the polls. "About a fourth of voters will still use electronic machines that offer no paper record to verify that their choice was accurately recorded, even though these machines are vulnerable to hacking and crashes that drop votes. The machines will be used by most voters in Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Eight other states, including Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey and South Carolina, will use touch-screen machines with paper trails." Even Oprah Winfrey had trouble when she went to vote. As my Algebra teacher used to say, CHECK your work! And if your ballot doesn't record your vote correctly, flag down a pollworker, SPEAK UP.
  

• Are you on Twitter? Send your tweets on the voting process and how the lines are doing to Twitter's voting reports. If you haven't already, set up your mobile phone, (I advise turning OFF "Device Updates" immediately unless you want all those twitter updates coming to your phone!) Then text your reports to "40404." Here are some codes to use:
  
• #zip code to indicate the zip code where you're voting, for example, "#20002"
• L:address or city to drill down your exact location. Example: "L:1600 Pennsylvania Ave. D.C."
• #machine for machine problems, Example: "#machine broken, using prov. ballot"
• #reg for registration troubles. Ex.: "#reg I wasn't on the rolls"
• #wait:minutes for long lines. Example: "#wait:120 and I'm coming back later"
• #early if you're voting before Nov. 4
• #good or #bad to give a quick sense of your overall experience

PLEASE feel free to forward this on to everyone!

CONTINUE READING...

Voters Un-purged-- De-purged?-- Under-purged?

It's a start: "Tens of thousands of Coloradans who had been removed from the state's voter rolls will be allowed to vote in next week's election and given extra protections so their ballots are counted, under an agreement reached late Wednesday in federal court here. The voters' names had been removed by Mike Coffman, the Colorado secretary of state, who said he did so because the voters had moved out of state or were listed more than once on the rolls. But Mr. Coffman was sued by a coalition of voting rights and other groups who said such purges were generally prohibited by federal law within 90 days of an election. Under the agreement, voters removed from the rolls will be permitted to cast provisional ballots, and those ballots will be counted unless election officials can prove the voters were not eligible. To strike such ballots, county election officials must conduct an extensive records review on each one, a decision that must then be reviewed by Mr. Coffman's office."

And in Michigan, purged voter names are being returned to the rolls: "On Oct. 30, election officials in Michigan began returning approximately 5,500 names to their voter rolls. The voters' names were removed because their voter ID cards had been undeliverable since Jan 1., 2006, according to The Detroit News. A U.S. District Court judge originally ordered the official to reinstate the names on Oct. 13, saying that purging them had violated the National Voting Rights Act. Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land appealed the decision, however, arguing that putting the names back would be a burden and that they had been removed legally."

From back ages ago (i.e. September), read the Brennan Center for Justice's really throroughly frightening report on Voter Purges."While the lack of transparency in purge practices precludes a precise figure of the number of those erroneously purged, we do know that purges have been conducted improperly before. In 2004, for example, Florida planned to remove 48,000 "suspected felons" from its voter rolls. Many of those identified were in fact eligible to vote. The flawed process generated a list of 22,000 African Americans to be purged, but only 61 voters with Hispanic surnames, notwithstanding Florida's sizable Hispanic population. Under pressure from voting rights groups, Florida ordered officials to stop using the purge list. Although this purge was uncovered and mostly stopped before it was completed, other improper purges may go undetected and unremedied."

Also don't forget if you're in Florida, that Obama has his ground team ready, if there is ANY problem at the polls. Just flag down a volunteer: "A team of 5,000 volunteer lawyers representing the Democrats will fan out across polling stations in Florida next Tuesday to ensure that the Republicans do not 'steal' the election as - Democrats claim - George Bush did eight years ago. Heading the biggest team of lawyers ever assembled is Charles Lichtman, a partner in the Fort Lauderdale law firm Berger Singerman, who has been working as an unpaid volunteer for up to 18 hours a day since August. His drive comes from the experience of being what he describes as 'the Hanging Chad Guy', heading up a team of lawyers based in infamous Broward county for weeks during the 2000 recount."

In happier news though, Obama's lead has widened on the Gallup poll, helping to raise Obama's RCP polling spread to 6.4 (at 1:30 pm...)

CONTINUE READING...

Getting Out to Vote

FLORIDA, CONGRATULATIONS!! Due to historic turnout, your early voting hours have been extended to 12 hours a day during the week! Keep voting!! "Current Florida law allows for early voting to be conducted eight hours a day each weekday and for a total of eight hours during the weekends. With Governor Crist's order, early voting sites will be open the rest of this week from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. They will be open a total of 12 hours on Saturday and Sunday, the last day of early voting. 'It's not a political decision,' Mr. Crist said moments after signing the order, which declares a state of emergency in Florida. 'It's a people decision.'"

OHIO, CONGRATULATIONS!! "A federal judge in Ohio has ruled that counties must allow homeless voters to list park benches and other locations that aren't buildings as their addresses. U.S. District Judge Edmund Sargus also ruled that provisional ballots can't be invalidated because of poll worker errors. Monday's ruling resolved the final two pieces of a settlement between the Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner." Honey, in this financial atmosphere, you'd better not disenfranchise the homeless voters, 'cause that could be any of us listing a streetside grate as "home" if the economy keeps tanking...

NEVADA: EXCELLENT PLANNING! You have voting stations set up in outlet malls, grocery stores, health clubs, libraries, community centers, anywhere people tend to go in their normal daily business. Make it easy, make it accessible, make it fast. 160,000 people have already turned out in the state's most populous county, Clark County. I LOVE it.

Electoral-Vote also points out this poll from the Weekly Reader. In case you don't remember this from your school days, Weekly Reader is a publication for schoolkids, and they do a poll each presidential election of students from kindergarten to 12th grade. This year, they predict an Obama win --55% to McCain's 43%. The VoteMaster says, "This survey has been surprisingly accurate in the past, getting 12 of the past 13 presidential elections right, missing only Bill Clinton's win in a 3-way race in 1992. The survey's accuracy may be due to children getting most of their political views from their parents and the children's views may more accurately reflect what their parents are really thinking than what the parents are telling the pollsters."

No one get complacent though! As this YouTube video warns us...it ain't over til it's over.

HuffPo note that the voters are running away with the election. (that's a bit of humor, folks)
Seriously though, some highlights:

COLORADO: Early voting is currently at over 75% of 2004 levels with one week to go.

TEXAS: "Across Dallas County and into the outer suburbs, thousands of people continue to stream into polling places, dwarfing early-voting records and raising questions about what the preliminary tallies mean for candidates and political parties."

FLORIDA: Early voters already make up 27% of total 2004 numbers (in 2004, early voters constituted 36% of total votes). Dems outnumber Republicans so far, 44.7% to 40%.

GEORGIA: Early voting is already 33% higher than 2004 numbers, and is equivalent to 31% of all votes cast in Georgia in 2004. Of early voters, 35% are African-American, compared to 25% of the total voting population in 2004.Also, nearly 56% of early voters are women, another excellent sign for Democrats.

OHIO: "Among those in Ohio who told WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA that they have already voted, Barack Obama leads by 13 points."

ILLINOIS: 60,000 votes have already been cast in the Tenth Congressional District. Of those, 58% were cast by registered Democrats, compared to 25% for Republicans.

IOWA: Registered Democrats have a 20-point advantage in early voting over Republicans in Iowa.

LOUISIANA: Early voting is near double 2004 levels. Of early voters, registered Democrats have a huge edge, 57.9% to 29.4%. 34% of early voters are African-American.

NEVADA: Democrats lead 54.4% to 29.1% among early voters. Early voters constituted 59.4% of all voters in 2004; this year, early voting to this point is equivalent to 44% of all 2004 numbers.

NORTH CAROLINA: The proportion of black voters among all early voters has leveled off - they constitute 28% of all voters now - but still exceeds black registration in the state.

TENNESSEE: As of Monday, 1.1 million voters had turned out to vote early, according to state election coordinators. Early voting closes tomorrow in Tennessee.

CONTINUE READING...

Polling Update: Oct 22

For all of us worriers out there-- yes, I know this means me-- who STILL fret endlessly that Obama will somehow get edged out of this election, Charlie Cook at the National Journal has some calming things to note:

• 

  First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win.
• Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain's candidacy.
• Third, considering that 89 percent of all voters who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John Kerry four years ago and 93 percent of Republicans cast their ballots for George W. Bush, the switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would seem to almost seal this outcome irrespective of the candidates fielded on each side.
• Fourth, with Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message.
• Fifth, while many are talking about the so-called "Bradley effect," it hasn't been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.
• Finally, Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Let's not forget too, that McCain has hung all his hopes for winning on taking Pennsylvania. But, Johnny Mac...unless you're planning some disastrous "accident" that will only affect Democrats, honey.... Pennsylvania doesn't look good. See how that Obama line is going sharply up and your line is going sharply down?

All this still won't stop me from obsessively checking the polling numbers. LOL

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com conveniently noted yesterday the poll release times in his fascinating assessment of all the polls out there, so now I know when to check his site and RealClearPolitics for updated numbers.

• Zogby/C-SPAN/Reuters: 12:45 AM Eastern Time.
• Research 2000/Daily Kos: Early AM, usually about 7:30 Eastern time.
• Rasmussen Reports: Promptly at 9:30 AM Eastern. Results are sometimes available slightly earlier for subscribers to their Premium service.
• The Diageo Hotline Poll: Midmorning, usually around 10:30 AM Eastern time. Results are often teased on the Hotline Blog before they appear in full.
• Battleground/Tarrance/George Washington U.: Weekdays only -- midmornings around 10:30 AM Eastern time.
• Gallup: At 1 PM Eastern time, or a few minutes thereafter.
• Investors Business' Daily/TIPP: Mid-afternoon, usually about 3 PM Eastern time.
• ABC News/Washington Post: Embargoed until 5 PM Eastern.

====================

13 days to the election! We are now only TWO WEEKS from the Election!

All over the country the Early Voting juggernaut continues to amaze. The NY Times estimates that one third of all voter may have cast a ballot before Nov 4, and observes that many of those early voters are Democrats.

Andrew Sullivan at Daily Dish has some email "snapshots" detailing long lines and unprecedented turnout from voters around the country.

Floridians, by the way, STAY IN LINE and VOTE! Obama promised yesterday to make sure everyone's votes are counted. As HuffPo reports, he said that there will be "volunteers on hand at every polling location every day in case something goes wrong. Should someone experience difficulty casting their vote they would need only to flag down a person wearing a blue hat and help would be on the way. A toll-free number, 877.2FLOBAMA, will also be available for people to call for help." Man's got a plan. According to Bloomberg, Obama has engaged a massive team to make sure no one is disenfranchised."In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court. `On Election Day, I will be managing the largest law firm in the country, albeit for one day,' said Lichtman, 53, a Fort Lauderdale corporate lawyer and veteran of the five-week recount after the 2000 election when Florida eventually delivered the presidency to George W. Bush."

I think we also have to take a moment to stop and congratulate each other on the record voter registration that took place this year. From Arkansas to New Jersey, from San Mateo to Kalamazoo, it's been crazy--let's just make sure turnout is as high!

* * * * * * * *

AVOID THE LINES (or join the lines...) and vote early! Your state may offer the option of voting early, if you're willing to go to your local Board of Elections. Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options with links to official websites. Here is the shortlist of states and their early voting windows:

Alaska: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arkansas: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arizona: : Oct 2-31 California: Oct 6-Nov 3 Colorado: Oct 20-31 Georgia: Sept 22-Oct 31 Florida: Oct 20-Nov 2 Hawaii: Oct 21-Nov 1 Idaho: Oct 10-Nov 3 Illinois: Oct 13-30 Indiana: Oct 6-Nov 3 Iowa: Sept 25- Nov 3 Kansas: Oct 15-Nov 3 Louisiana: Oct 21-28 Maine: Oct 5-Nov 3 Montana: Oct 6- Nov 3

Nebraska: Sept 30- Nov 3 Nevada: Oct 18-31 New Mexico: Oct 7-Nov 1 North Carolina: Oct 16-Nov 1 North Dakota: Sept 25-Nov 3 Ohio: Sept 30-Nov 3 Oklahoma: Oct 31-Nov 3 South Dakota: now-Nov 3 Tennessee: Oct 15-30 Texas: Oct 20-31 Utah: Oct 23-Nov 2 Vermont: Oct 6-Nov 3 West Virginia: Oct 15-Nov 1 Wisconsin: now-Nov 3 Wyoming: Sept 25-Nov 3

CONTINUE READING...

Maverick Maneuvers

So we're down to two weeks. Time is running out, and with the McCain camp letting go of Iowa and New Mexico and now Colorado, he has to (as CNN loves to say) look for a mathematical way to win those magical 270 electoral votes. So minus Colorado (9 EVS and Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 EVs). The maverick dreams big though--he hopes to hold on to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada. But that won't be enough, so he's adding....wait for it... Pennsylvania. Yes, McCain is campaigning today in PENNSYLVANIA. Can I just remind his campaign that Obama has an averaged 12 point lead in this state? Jeez man, go back to Colorado, Obama's only got a 5 point lead there!

But really, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada and Pennsylvania? That's a lot of territory to hold.

This week's polling from CBS/NYTimes show the Obama-Biden team with a bump nationally from last week's debate. They are now at 54% to McCain's 41% with the same group of people who were polled before the debate. Pre-debate it was 48%-43% Obama-McCain.

Trends show the race tightening, although Obama's lead in Gallup Daily poll expanded to 11 points from yesterday's 10. He now leads McCain 52%-41%. Still, Politico is noting that Obama's lead is expanding in two key counties-- he leads 50-40 in Nevada's Washoe County and 52-43 in North Carolina's Wake County-- which may help swing those two state to his column more solidly.

====================

14 days to the election! We are now only TWO WEEKS from the Election!

AVOID THE LINES (or join the lines...)! Early voting has started in 29 states across the nation. Your state may offer the option of voting early, if you're willing to go to your local Board of Elections. Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options with links to official websites. Here is the shortlist of states and their early voting windows:

Alaska: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arkansas: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arizona: : Oct 2-31 California: Oct 6-Nov 3 Colorado: Oct 20-31 Georgia: Sept 22-Oct 31 Florida: Oct 20-Nov 2 Hawaii: Oct 21-Nov 1 Idaho: Oct 10-Nov 3 Illinois: Oct 13-30 Indiana: Oct 6-Nov 3 Iowa: Sept 25- Nov 3 Kansas: Oct 15-Nov 3 Louisiana: Oct 21-28 Maine: Oct 5-Nov 3 Montana: Oct 6- Nov 3

Nebraska: Sept 30- Nov 3 Nevada: Oct 18-31 New Mexico: Oct 7-Nov 1 North Carolina: Oct 16-Nov 1 North Dakota: Sept 25-Nov 3 Ohio: Sept 30-Nov 3 Oklahoma: Oct 31-Nov 3 South Dakota: now-Nov 3 Tennessee: Oct 15-30 Texas: Oct 20-31 Utah: Oct 23-Nov 2 Vermont: Oct 6-Nov 3 West Virginia: Oct 15-Nov 1 Wisconsin: now-Nov 3 Wyoming: Sept 25-Nov 3

* * * * * * * *

And if there are problems voting early with the machines (!!!)--Jeez, Florida-- what is your problem??-- please don't give up!!

Nevada, you're doing well, where the First Read blog says that: "Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won't be a wave; it'll be a tsunami."

CONTINUE READING...

Devil is in the Details

Since ACORN has been in the news so much, can I just remind everyone that when you hear someone argue that ACORN submitted thousands of fraudulent voter registration cards, can you please retort that ACORN officials are required by LAW to turn in EVERY card they receive, even the dumb ones. They can only mark cards that they think are "bad" ("Mickey Mouse," "Donald Duck") which they did. But, while annoying, this is REGISTRATION fraud-- it does not constitute voter fraud unless "Mickey Mouse"shows up to vote. A big thank you too, to Betty who sends along word of REPUBLICAN voter registration irregularities. From the LA TImes: "The owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired to register tens of thousands of voters this year was arrested in Ontario over the weekend on suspicion of voter registration fraud. State and local investigators allege that Mark Jacoby fraudulently registered himself to vote at a childhood California address where he no longer lives so he would appear to meet the legal requirement that all signature gatherers be eligible to vote in California. His firm, Young Political Majors, or YPM, collects petition signatures and registers voters in California and other states."

The US Supreme Court ruled at the eleventh hour that Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner does NOT have to supply the Ohio GOP with names of 200,000 new voters who registration info may not match state records. Wapo reports: "The GOP argued that the county boards needed the lists to detect possible registration fraud. Brunner had said that reprogramming the system just weeks before the Nov. 4 election would result in chaos. Until the Supreme Court issued its unanimous ruling, Brunner was under court order to produce lists for counties by yesterday.

Wapo also reports that in Montana, "a state GOP official challenged nearly 6,000 voters over apparent discrepancies in their addresses. He dropped his challenge after Democrats went to court, but not before one county sent letters to hundreds of voters informing them that their registrations were in jeopardy. Now the county is trying to let them know they are eligible to cast ballots after all. The Republicans filed the case 'with the express intent to disenfranchise voters,' a federal judge said."

And since we're on the topic of fraud. Let the games begin. In West Virginia, the Charleston Gazette is reporting that voters have had problems with the touch screen voting machines, which mysteriously kept switching their "check" in the Obama box over to a check in the McCain box. Hmmmm.....

CONTINUE READING...

Ground Control to Major Tom

Over the last few days, voters across the nation have gotten "the call" from John McCain-- no, not asking them to serve as McCain's VP pick, though Lord knows he needs a new one. The one informing them that you "need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist, Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home, and killed Americans." Lovely. There's also another one that tries to hit on the old "Obama is a Hollywood celebrity" idea. Do we have to have Paris Hilton make yet another video, John??? Now it comes out that McCain is using Feather, Hodges, Larson & Synhorst to make those calls, the same firm for robo-calling that was used AGAINST him in 2004. HuffPo has a good roundup of links here, including one in which McCain condemns the robo-call practice.

Another article on the cell phone phenomenon and how the opinions of younger voters wind up being underplayed in national polls as a result. "According to the estimates compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics, by the last six months of 2007, 14.5 percent of all adults were living in households that could only be reached by a cell phone, a number that had more than tripled (from 4.4 percent) since 2004. Younger Americans especially are out of reach. Mining the same NCHS study, the Pew Research Center reports that nearly a third (30.6 percent) of 18-to-24-year-olds can be reached only by cell phone....A few weeks ago, blogger Nate Silver compared the house effects of national polls that have been interviewing by cell phone with those that have not. He found that including cell phone interviews appeared to improve Obama's standing by 2 to 3 percentage points on the margin."

Before you even start to get upset about the poll numbers tightening, "That's what happens at the end of campaigns," Obama said on the Today Show this morning. "Even when there are substantial leads. And in each of these battleground states, you've got a lot of close races. One of the messages that I've had to my team is that we don't let up. We do not let up."

And Joe Biden echoes his running mate's thoughts: "Anyone who tells you this election is already decided is dead wrong. Let's not forget the 2000 election, when Al Gore was up by double digits in October. The surest way to lose a race is to slow down with the finish line in sight. We're taking no chances. We've planned the biggest get out the vote operation in history, and we need to make sure that every voter has their voice heard."

Joe's right, although a look at that 2004 Electoral vote graph show also how tight and how volatile that race was. Not that I'm sayin' we should get cocky, but this year, Obama the majority of the time with a lead over McCain.

2004:

2008:

CONTINUE READING...

Polling update: Oct. 17

"According to most polls, Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead in Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, all states that many political strategists and pollsters believe are too far gone at this late date for John McCain to win. Still, McCain's campaign soldiers on in those Democratic-leaning states, committing its most precious commodities — time and money — even as the Republican nominee struggles to lock up the red states he likely must sweep to win the presidency. It's a head-scratching strategy that is leading even some Republicans to wonder why the McCain campaign hasn't written off places such as Iowa and Pennsylvania and strategically retreated to ensure victory in more favorable red state terrain — such as Virginia and North Carolina — that it absolutely cannot afford to lose."

Meanwhile, the AP reports that there are signs that Ohio may not be the site of QUITE as many distracting shenanigans as last election cycle. Can we be hopeful? "The Supreme Court sided Friday with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations. The justices overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases."

Also, note that if you're going to the polls, be careful what you wear. Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Dish, sounds a note of caution from a North Carolina early voter who saw a woman wearing campaign paraphernalia while in the voting line. "An older man, also in line, told the woman she could not vote because she was electioneering. Another man spoke up and said that the woman could vote so long as she wasn't arm-twisting anyone to vote for her candidate." Everyone, so you know, wearing campaign stuff (McCain buttons, "Obama Girl" T-shirts, Ralph Nader baseball caps) to the polls is called "passive electioneering," and there is speculation that voters will be turned away at the polls for it. In Pennsylvania back in September, GOP officials "called on the Rendell administration to enforce a little-known, decades-old law that they say bans such things." According to Snopes.com, which offers this information on the subject, rules vary from state to state, and there are no clear answers. So I say, take no chances. Wear plain clothes, no buttons, no "I've got a crush on Obama" T-Shirts, folks. It's just for a few minutes.

CONTINUE READING...

From Little ACORNS

Frankly with the way things are going, forget the Ayers attacks, I'm surprised that Republicans have not made more political hay out of the ACORN controversy. I suppose it could be because, well, he was a lead speaker at an ACORN-sponsored event back in 2006, but McCain is running this ad.

Obama replied: "first of all, my relationship to ACORN is pretty straightforward. It's probably 13 years ago when I was still practicing law, I represented ACORN and my partner in that representation was the US Justice Department in having Illinois implement what was called the 'Motor Voter' law, to make sure that people could go to DMV's and drivers' license facilities to get registered.. It wasn't being implemented. That was my relationship and is my relationship to ACORN.

O"There is an ACORN organization in Chicago," Obama continued. "They have been active. As an elected official, I've had interactions with them. But they are not advising our campaign. We've got the best voter registration and turnout and volunteer operation in politics right now and we don't need ACORN's help...What I want to make sure of, is that this is not used as an excuse for the kind of voter suppression strategies and tactics that we've seen in the past. Let's just make sure everybody is voting, everybody's registered. Let's make sure that everybody's doing it in a lawful way."

CONTINUE READING...

Through the Looking Glass II

Christopher Buckley son of the founder of the National Review, William F. Buckley Jr., apologizes to his father's memory and then jumps into the tank with us. In an endorsement on Tina Brown's newly launched Daily Beast, Buckley says, "As for Senator Obama: He has exhibited throughout a "first-class temperament," pace Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.'s famous comment about FDR...I've read Obama's books, and they are first-rate. He is that rara avis, the politician who writes his own books. Imagine... Obama has in him—I think, despite his sometimes airy-fairy "We are the people we have been waiting for" silly rhetoric—the potential to be a good, perhaps even great leader. He is, it seems clear enough, what the historical moment seems to be calling for. So, I wish him all the best. We are all in this together. Necessity is the mother of bipartisanship. And so, for the first time in my life, I'll be pulling the Democratic lever in November."

Buckley also notes dryly that his father once said to him, "after a right-winger who fancied himself a WFB protégé had said something transcendently and provocatively cretinous, 'You know, I've spent my entire life time separating the Right from the kooks.'" Too bad Bill, you lost on that score.

Speaking of the kooks, from the Times Union: "Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's last name is spelled "Osama" on hundreds of absentee ballots mailed out this week to voters in Rensselaer County.The misspelling, which elections officials on both sides of the aisle insist was simply a typo, is causing embarrassment for the county." Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I say this is no "accident."

CONTINUE READING...

Guilt by Association

Dina reminded me about the questions about Andrew McCain, Cindy's son, and his role as director of the Silver State Bank, which Federal regulators shut down earlier this year. I thought it had been a bigger story, but since a few people have told me now they don't know anything about it, I duly include it here. "Andrew K. McCain, a son of Republican presidential nominee John McCain, sat on the boards of Silver State Bank and of its parent, Silver State Bancorp, starting in February but resigned in July citing "personal reasons," corporate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission show. Andrew McCain also was a member of the bank's audit committee, responsible for oversight of the company's accounting. Regulators on Friday shut down Silver State Bank, saying the Nevada bank failed because of losses on soured loans, mainly in commercial real estate and land development." Not that anyone will investigate or anything.

============================

The poll analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com is now showing a win percentage for Obama over 90% of the time. 538 runs 10,000 election simulations each day of how the election might go based on the probabilities, and in 90% of the scenarios, Obama wins.

Oh, it looks crazy cool. I love it. But in a way it's not surprising. Remember, folks, Obama used to lecture on Voting Rights and Election Law at the University of Chicago. I think if any candidate has carefully assessed how to build a successful campaign, how to assemble a solid base of electoral votes, it's the relentlessly practical Obama. A former student of his notes that, "Obama reminded me that whatever my beliefs were, I'd have to find a way to implement them in the real world if I wanted to make change happen."

=============================
Also don't forget to check Project Vote, which lists the names and addresses of purged voters in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas (so far). If you live in one of these states, check the list TODAY to see if you have been purged and also check for friends, relatives, and neighbors." If you find yourself or someone you know on one of these lists, they may be able to protest being removed from the rolls.

In the NY Times yesterday, there was a piece that noted that these purges may be illegal! "The six swing states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Michigan and Colorado are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote.Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio seem to be improperly using Social Security data to verify registration applications for new voters. In addition to the six swing states, three more states appear to be violating federal law. Alabama and Georgia seem to be improperly using Social Security information to screen registration applications from new voters. And Louisiana appears to have removed thousands of voters after the federal deadline for taking such action."

My own humble opinion is this: while I'm thrilled that there may be a legal challenge to the purging, CHECK TO MAKE SURE YOU'RE NOT REMOVED ANYWAY. NOW. JUST IN CASE. Maybe it will be ruled illegal, but maybe that won't happen until November 5, y'know what I'm saying?

CONTINUE READING...

Social Life

"We live in the midst of alarms; anxiety beclouds the future; we expect some new disaster with each newspaper we read."

--Abraham Lincoln

My God, is it really October? It's been a whole month since I started this Rant (can you believe it's only been one month? It's like dog-years) and this is the 21st Edition! I just want to take a moment to thank all of you for keeping me well-nourished with juicy tidbits and also for forwarding it on to your friends!

So with the House of Representative in disarray, the Senate has decided to give things a go today. Obama, McCain and Biden will be headed back to DC to vote on their version of the bill I so carefully outlined yesterday. "I'll see your $700 thousand million and raise you an FDIC limit of $250,000."

Media funnies

A few of my favorite items for today-- always knowing there will be more tomorrow!

Jon Stewart on The Daily Show grabs the conch and goes OFF about Congress' inability to get this bill done and that they're out for the Jewish holiday: "Listen up, Congress! Get the F**K back to work! For the 'Jewish holiday' for God's sake? How many Jews are even in Congress? Wall Street is open-- I'll guarantee you they got more Jews on Wall Street than in Congress. I'm here, The Daily Show is on, and I guarantee we have more Jews at The Daily Show than Congress. So, get back to saving the economy and if you have to do it without Feingold and Lieberman so be it. How about this? The Congressional delegations from Florida and New York can sleep in. How about that? I mean seriously--Utah? You're not coming in for Rosh Hashanah? Wyoming? My rabbi doesn't even have the balls to take two days for Rosh Hashanah."

If you're looking for a little "laughing while I'm crying moment, here is McCain, versus McCain. (Thanks for sending that, Randi, now my eyeliner is all smudged...)

And for flat out sputtering outrage, watch Cenk Uygar go off on Palin's answer to Katie Couric regarding Hamas. Cenk--who's admittedly on the biased side, like me--is convinced Palin has NO IDEA who the Hamas is, and dontcha know, I'm inclined to agree. He also suggests that if you put a map in front of her, she couldn't tell you where the Gaza Strip is. Entirely possible. Cenk wishes selecting a VP candidate were more like gymnastics where you get a big ZERO score if you flub your vault. Don't we wish.

Here's a YouTube nugget I missed earlier this year, a consumer calls up customer service to ask about the Iraq War Charge on her bill.

And this morning Paula Poundtone put a homespun touch on the financial crisis: "Gee, this stuff is hard to follow. I don't think I even know how many zeros are in a trillion. But after listening to the candidates, I realized I can't count on the powers that be to explain the nature of the financial crisis, and it will be up to me to inform myself. So I turned to It's A Wonderful Life for background on liquidity and solvency, which would have filled me with hope if I didn't have a bad feeling that we've already spent George and Mary Bailey's honeymoon funds."

Okay, this one's not really funny, per se, but it is very very interesting. Five economists discuss the crisis at Princeton. (Hyun Shin, Markus Brunnermeier, Harrison Hong, Paul Krugman, Alan Blinder) It's an hour long, so don't click on this if you're in a hurry. But it's extremely enlightening and well worth the time...

Hoisted with Her Own Petard

Eric wants to rescue the post turtle. No, no, no, not Sarah Palin, he mean the poor little turtle in the picture. I love the joke. ('You know she didn't get up there by herself, she doesn't belong up there, she doesn't know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her up there to begin with.') But even so, it's becoming clearer and clearer that the problem with comparing the turtle with Palin is that the turtle didn't put herself up there... Sarah Palin did. Free the Real Post Turtle.

A little advance taste of the Thursday's event: a photo of Palin in Sedona, prepping for the debate with a practice run with Randy Scheuneman. In my fertile imagination, I picture this photo being snapped in the long silence after a Palin answer, and then Randy saying, "What the hell was that? Okay, okay [shakes head] ya gotta focus, Sarah, ya gotta frackin' FOCUS IN."

So the real question, though, is how will Palin "play" in her debate with Biden tomorrow? So far, consensus is that her performance in interviews has been someplace between abysmal and disastrous. BUT The New York Times has an interesting look at her previous debates. (They also examine Biden's style, noting he'll have to guard againt being "overbearing or condescending." Sorry, Joe, I know that's nigh-on impossible given Palin's utter lack of any brains, but please try.) While they see echoes of the peripatetic blather we've seen before ("I can't tell you how much that will reduce monetarily our health care costs, but competition makes everyone better, it makes us work harder, it does allow reduction in costs, so addressing that is going to be a priority."), there also hints of an "average person who understood the average person's needs and would not be expected to have detailed policy prescriptions." Lord help us. Why would we WANT an "average person"? Should we want an ABOVE average person? Or is that too intimidating?

Still, Andrew Halcro, who debated Palin in the governorship race in Alaska, warns ,"she's a master, not of facts, figures, or insightful policy recommendations, but at the fine art of the nonanswer, the glittering generality."

As part of their "media blitz" this week, Palin went on the radio telling America about how she's just average working class..."Todd and I, heck, we're going through that right now even as we speak, which may put me again kind of on the outs of those Washington elite who don't like the idea of just an everyday working class American running for such an office.

Up is down. Black is white. Thursday is Tuesday. As HuffPo notes, it was the bastion of conservativism, The Washington Times, that pointed out that Palin is hardly working class: "A check of financial records, though, shows the Palins live anything but a common life when compared with their fellow residents of their hometown of Wasilla. Their combined income of nearly a quarter-million dollars last year was five times the median household income for Wasilla's 7,000 residents. They own a single-engine plane, two boats, two personal watercraft and a half-million-dollar, custom-built home on a lake that is worth three times the average of other homes in town. For the future, they also have a 401(k) retirement account compliments of Todd Palin's years as an engineer with oil giant BP." Hmmm, that wasn't what I meant by "above average."

Former Dem strategist Paul Begala offers his ten rules about debates on CNN (Thanks, Jackie for sending that along!) It's a sobering reminder that actually knowing something isn't necessarily a prerequisite oto good debating in this case. He observes: "Politicians are a lot like Little Leaguers (although I don't think I'd trust them with aluminum bats). They crave confidence. And the more confident they are, the better they're likely to do." To me, the question is not if Palin has confidence--she has loads...to start with. But in just about every interview she's done thus far, we see the same thing. At the outset, she's just dumb enough to think she's smart, but then as you watch her keep on talking, you can also see that she's just smart enough to gradually realize that she's dumb.

ANYway. Yes, it's true, just by reading my daily rant, YOU can become More Qualified to Be Vice President than Sarah Palin. From HuffPo: "Asked what newspapers and magazines she reads, Palin - a journalism major in college - could not name one publication. "I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media," she said at first. Couric responded, "What, specifically?" "Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years." "Can you name a few?" "I have a vast variety of source where we get our news," Palin said. "Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, 'wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?' Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America."

As I mentioned to Betty, with all this trash-talking about elitist media, Palin had a little problem embedded in that question (besides the obvious problem of being completely incurious about anything):

• She can't say she reads NY Times after Steve Schmidt blasted it as having no "journalistic integrity."
• She can't say she read the Washington Post, because Howard Kurtz has been dogging her for weeks.
• The LA Times reports how even Alaskans are angry that the McCain campaign was shielding Palin.
• Time? Nope, home of the conservative libertarian Mark Halperin who called for them to "Stop the Madness!" and said on CNN, "if a core part of their message is something that every journalist -- journalism organization in the country has looked at and says it's demonstrably false, again, we're not doing our jobs if we just treat this as one of many things that's happening."
• Newsweek has the Jonathan Alterman problem.
  
• Forget the Atlantic, home of Andrew Sullivan, who once supported McCain but now enumerates the Twelve Lies of Sarah Palin.
  
• And even the National Freaking Review's Kathleen Parker says, "If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself."
  

See, the problem with being your kind of maverick is that you don't have any friends now--no lifelines, no one to help you, no one whose name you'd be allowed to mention. Hoisted with your own petard.

(By the way, about "seeing" Russia from Alaska. That's true, but there's only one place in Alaska that you can do that from: Little Diomede island in the Bering Strait. Gary Tuchman on Anderson Cooper 360 visited it --which Palin has never done. "No American mayor resides in a city closer to Russia than Andrew Milligrock, and he says being two miles from Russia doesn't give him any foreign policy expertise."

And is the McCain Campaign going "Jeff Gillooly" on this debate? "PBS' Gwen Ifill has broken her ankle after tripping and falling down stairs at her home last night, a NewsHour insider tells TVNewser. We're told Ifill had been walking up a staircase, carrying research related to her moderating duties at Thursday's Vice Presidential debate in St. Louis, when she took a wrong step.We are also told the show will go on: Ifill is planning to travel to Missouri for the big event." Stay tuned-- if someone takes a whack at Gwen's knees, you know what happened.

============================

So Thurday's topics may wander all over the place, but I'm betting you'll hear more than a little about Sarah Palin's values. So today's topic is candidate positions on social values issues. (I know, I know, stop rolling your eyes. We gotta cover it. It's in the curriculum.) I focus on the lead candidate positions knowing that a) the policy positions of the person at the top of the ticket is what most people consider more important and b) I'm interested to see if there is any divergence of opinion between the presidential and vice-presidential candidates. A lot of info here from the NY Times' resource on candidate positions, and also the Associated Press' summary-- liberal-biased media elites that they are.

On proposed constitutional amendment that defines marriage as between a man and a woman:

Obama: Opposes constitutional amendment to ban it.

McCain: Opposes constitutional amendment to ban it.

On civil unions between same sex partners:

Obama: Supports civil unions, says states should decide about marriage. Switched positions in 2004 and now supports repeal of Defense of Marriage Act, which denies federal recognition of same-sex marriages and gives states the right to refuse to recognize such marriages.

McCain: Says same-sex couples should be allowed to enter into legal agreements for insurance and similar benefits.

On Roe v. Wade decision

Obama: I have been a consistent champion of reproductive choice and will make preserving women's rights under Roe v. Wade a priority as president. I oppose any constitutional amendment to overturn the Supreme Court's decision in that case.

McCain: I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned. Has voted for abortion restrictions permissible under Roe v. Wade, and now says he would seek to overturn that guarantee of abortion rights. Would not seek constitutional amendment to ban abortion.

On continuing the current ban on funding for embryonic stem cell research in place

Obama: No. Each year, 100,000 Americans will develop Alzheimer's disease, with impaired memory, ability to understand, and judgment. Over 1 million adults will be diagnosed with diabetes this year, and risk complications that include blindness, damaged nerves and loss of kidney function. We all know or have met individuals with spinal cord injuries, including national celebrities, local war heroes and loved ones from our own families and circles of friends, who are struggling to maintain mobility and independence. For most of our history, medicine has offered little hope of recovery to the 100 million individuals affected by these and other devastating illnesses and injuries. Until now. Recent developments in stem cell research may hold the key to improved treatments, if not cures, for those affected by Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, spinal cord injury and countless other conditions. For this reason, I am a proud supporter of the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act. The president was wrong to veto it, and I will make sure that it is finally signed into law when I'm president.

McCain: Supports relaxing federal restrictions on financing of embryonic stemcell research.

On the Supreme Court decision upholding a ban on partial birth abortion

Obama: "I strongly disagree with [the] Supreme Court ruling, which dramatically departs from previous precedents safeguarding the health of pregnant women. As Justice Ginsburg emphasized in her dissenting opinion, this ruling signals an alarming willingness on the part of the conservative majority to disregard its prior rulings respecting a woman's medical concerns and the very personal decisions between a doctor and patient."

McCain: "[The] Supreme Court ruling is a victory for those who cherish the sanctity of life and integrity of the judiciary. The ruling ensures that an unacceptable and unjustifiable practice will not be carried out on our innocent children...as we move forward, it is critically important that our party continues to stand on the side of life."

On Gun Control

Obama: Voted to leave gun-makers and dealers open to suit. Also, as Illinois state lawmaker, supported ban on all forms of semiautomatic weapons and tighter state restrictions generally on firearms.

McCain: Voted against ban on assault-type weapons but in favor of requiring background checks at gun shows. Voted to shield gun-makers and dealers from civil suits. "I believe the Second Amendment ought to be preserved — which means no gun control."

On Judicial Nominations as President

Obama has signaled he would nominate judges with expansive, progressive view of the Constitution. "Justice Roberts [John G. Roberts Jr.] said he saw himself just as an umpire. But the issues that come before the Court are not sport; they're life and death. And we need somebody who's got the heart … the empathy to recognize what it's like to be a young teenage mom, the empathy to understand what it's like to be poor or African-American or gay or disabled or old. And that's the criteria by which I'm going to be selecting my judges."

McCain has signaled a dedication to nominating reliable conservatives, but is against naming "Activist judges." "I will look for accomplished men and women with a proven record of excellence in the law, and a proven commitment to judicial restraint. I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist — jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference. My nominees will understand that there are clear limits to the scope of judicial power, and clear limits to the scope of federal power."

================================

Meanwhile, in the "Keep Your Eye on the Ball" Dept.:

Voter Fraud-- it's not just a slogan."You know it's going to be a heated election when a state attorney general sues his own state agency for not cracking down on voter fraud. But that's just what's happened in Wisconsin. It's indicative of the kinds of legal challenges now being brought in hotly contested states around the country. The outcomes of those challenges will decide whose votes get counted and whose don't — and in a race as close as this one, that could make all the difference."

Folks, I'm happy to see more and more projections turning North Carolina in Obama's favor. The vaguely right-leaning RealClearPolitics has quietly flipped it over to Obama with a 0.3 point lead, but I think given Wachovia's fire sale to Citigroup last week, he may take a more sizable lead in coming weeks. Wachovia's headquarters were in Charlotte, and with 20,000 employees, they were the second largest employer in the region.

And the Quinnipiac poll numbers are up in the most delightful way in three big swing states: Ohio (50-42 Obama), Pennsylvania (54-39 Obama) and Florida (Sit down for this, 51-43 Obama). But all this only says to me that desperate parties will be working on desperate measures. It's time for vigilance.

I leave things with this head-shaking moment from PunditKitchen:

34 days to the election! Reminder again that time is running out--for many states, you must register to vote well in advance of the elections. RockTheVote's list of voter registration deadlines. Here are some upcoming dates--forward this on to your friends in the appropriate states (swing states in bold):

• THIS Saturday Oct 4: Alaska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Washington
• NEXT Monday, Oct 6: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, DC, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia.
• NEXT Tuesday, Oct 7: Illinois, New Mexico
• NEXT Wednesday, Oct 8: Missouri
  

If you're voting absentee, you may have to get your ballot in weeks before the Nov 4th Election date. Declare Yourself has links to each state's voter information page where you can find out how to get your absentee ballot.

CONTINUE READING...

Post Turtle

Happy New Year! Now Bail.

So no one likes the bailout. (Salient details are in this NYT graphic. Let's just say this proposal isn't 3 pages long.) House Republicans deadlocked the vote and rejected the bill this morning. How nice of them.

Hey, look at that, the Dow plunged 777 POINTS while you were "naying."

Yes'm, that would be the LARGEST one day drop for the Dow Jones um...EVER. It easily surpassed the previous record, 685 points, set on the first day of trading after September 11, 2001. But, no more voting today...everyone, "L'Shanah Tovah! Have a great Rosh Hashanah...Ramadan Mubarak, my Muslim brothers...We'll see you on Thursday!"

Look, honey-bunches, NO ONE likes this "Cash for Crap" plan. But as The Economist points out, global ripples are already on their way: "In the past week the financial crisis has erupted in even more dangerous forms globally. The interbank-funds market has seized up and even the most creditworthy corporate and financial firms are paying punitive rates. Last week Washington Mutual became the largest-ever American bank to fail. In Europe, three countries had to come to the rescue of Fortis, a Belgian banking group, and Britain did the same with a mortgage lender, Bradford & Bingley. And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the assets of Wachovia, another beleaguered American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators."

And while it is making some headlines here, let me just reiterate: European banks are feeling the punch-- although I think Americans aren't even noticing as they start to suffer from Failure Fatigue. "Dutch-Belgian bank and insurance giant Fortis NV was given a 11.2 billion euro ($16.4 billion) lifeline to avert insolvency as part of a wider bailout plan agreed to by Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, officials said Sunday. Belgium's Prime Minister Yves Leterme said the bailout shows account holders and investors that Fortis will not be allowed to fall victim to the global credit crisis."

And hey, John McCain! Looks like your "Katrina-like help" really worked out well. "Reckless and corrupt mismanagement," says McCain in his response this afternoon. "Reckless." That's rich.

Post Turtle

Okay, we need some humor. Fast. Thanks to Cheryl for this joke -- which had Eric and me on the floor laughing. I understand it's been used for other politicians, but it so perfectly fits Sarah Palin.

While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-year old rancher whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Sarah Palin and her bid to be a heartbeat away from being President.

The old rancher said, 'Well, ya know, Palin is a post turtle.' Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post turtle was.

The old rancher said, 'When you're driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a post turtle.'

The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor's face, so he continued to explain.

'You know she didn't get up there by herself, she doesn't belong up there, she doesn't know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her up there to begin with.'

We Strain in Vain to Find McPalin's Brain

Whoopsie. McCain appeared on George Stephanopoulos' show on Sunday on ABC, and um... had to retract the statement his esteemed running mate made the night before: "Saturday night, while on a stop for cheesesteaks in South Philadelphia, Palin was questioned by a Temple graduate student about whether the U.S. should cross the border from Afghanistan into Pakistan. 'If that's what we have to do stop the terrorists from coming any further in, absolutely, we should,' Palin said."

Hmmm, that sounds familiar... wait, what was it Barack Obama said during Friday night's debate? "If the United States has al Qaeda, bin Laden, top-level lieutenants in our sights, and Pakistan is unable or unwilling to act, then we should take them out." At that point, McCain, you might remember, said testily, "Now, you don't do that. You don't say that out loud. If you have to do things, you have to do things, and you work with the Pakistani government."

McCain, um...gently corrected Palin's statements: "She would not…she understands and has stated repeatedly that we're not going to do anything except in America's national security interest," McCain told ABC's George Stephanopoulos of Palin. "In all due respect, people going around and… sticking a microphone while conversations are being held, and then all of a sudden that's—that's a person's position… This is a free country, but I don't think most Americans think that that's a definitive policy statement made by Governor Palin."

Of course, this is the man who can't remember the name of the new Pakistani President (sending debate transcript typists into a confusion as to how to spell this mythical "Kardari" --Kaddari? Kidari? Qardari?). Hey, John, how about you just say, "Benazir Bhutto's husband" -- kinda like you're "Sarah Palin's running mate."

Palin is still PERKY [read, "adorably catty"] though, saying of Thursday's debate (9pm EDT, 6 pm PDT) with Biden. "I'm looking forward to meeting him, too. I've never met him before, but I've been hearing about his Senate speeches since I was in, like, second grade.''

Oh, it's going to be a long way til Thursday, folks.

Joining in on the growing chorus of aghast conservatives, Ron Dreher, the Crunchy Conservative, says, "Palin is mediocre, again, regurgitating talking points mechanically, not thinking. Palin's just babbling. She makes George W. Bush sound like Cicero....I remember the morning I woke up in my college dorm room and went in to take my final exam in my Formal Logic class. I knew I was unready. Massively unready. And now I was going to be put to the ultimate test. I sat down in Dr. Sarkar's class and resolved to wing it. Of course I failed the exam and failed the class, because I had no idea what I was talking about. I wasn't a bad kid, or even a stupid kid. I was just badly unprepared, and in way over my head. Seeing the Palin interview on CBS, I thought of myself in Dr. Sarkar's exam. But see, I was a college undergraduate who had the chance to take the class again, which I did, and passed (barely). I wasn't running for vice president of the United States."

So, Palin is safely tucked away prepping for debate someplace in one of the McCains' three or four homes in Sedona, AZ out of the ten McCain homes (Oh, and check out the McCain BBQ-ing tips at the first link-- yeah, he ain't a cook either). In the Wall Street Journal they report that "the McCain campaign aims to halt what it sees as a perceived decline in the crispness and precision of Gov. Palin's latest remarks as well as a fall in recent polls." I guess that's the nicest way you could ever think to put that. "'It's time to let Palin be Palin -- and let it all hang out,' said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist." What a thought.

McCain' spokeswoman saying essentially that if Gwen Ifill comes up with questions that are 60% foreign policy and 40% economy that it's unfair to Palin. Jesus, Mary, Joseph....Okay:

A) Isn't it a little kindergarten/schoolyard to be whining that 10% more foreign policy discussion is SOOOO unfair.
B) This is a debate for VICE PRESIDENT OF THE FREAKIN USA, so, shouldn't she be able to answer foreign policy questions? ("I'd like to use one of my Lifelines, Katie... I'd like to 'Phone a Friend.'")
C) What makes you think she'll be able to answer DOMESTIC policy questions??

Mitt Romney joins in with a backhanded defense: "Look she wasn't selected by John McCain because she's an expert on foreign policy." [Yeah. We got that.] "John McCain's the expert on foreign policy..." [Um...he is? John, can you say "Ahmadinejad" one more time?]

By the way, everyone keeps fact-checking the Kissinger lines from Friday's Presidential debate. I guess only a few people out there even bother to ask anymore whether Kissinger should be everybody's favorite foreign policy guru.

Speaking of edu-ma-cation, The LA Times reports this from the halls of Alaskan Education: "Soon after Sarah Palin was elected mayor of the foothill town of Wasilla, Alaska, she startled a local music teacher by insisting in casual conversation that men and dinosaurs coexisted on an Earth created 6,000 years ago -- about 65 million years after scientists say most dinosaurs became extinct -- the teacher said."

That's TOTALLY true. I saw it on TV once.

Sarah Palin, going for the all-important Sleestack vote. It's paying off: McCain is now polling at 52% among Sleestacks likely to vote.

Bonus round: Spot the dinosaur on the ticket.

====================

Lookin' Presidential

Newsweek writes-- in another sort of cross between "opinion" and "reportage" that's becoming so popular these days, maybe call it opinion-tage, "The three tests of recent weeks—the vice presidential nominations, the conflict in Georgia and now the financial crisis—have raised, in a serious way not always evident in presidential politics, the key question: how would each man lead? Our view is that if you are among the 18 percent or so of undecided voters (the current figure in most national polls), we think you now have more than enough on which to decide. McCain and Obama see the world differently, and you can see how; they behave in their own skins differently, and you can see how. The drama of the autumn has served perhaps the noblest end we could hope for, shedding light on how each man would govern. McCain is passionate, sometimes impulsive and unpredictable; Obama is precise, occasionally withdrawn and methodical."

I also like the implicit metaphor they draw by recounting McCain's oft-cited war story with a slightly new twist: "In his most recent book, Hard Choices, McCain describes how, on his last bombing mission over Hanoi, he heard the warning tone of an enemy SAM missile locking on to his plane. Bravely, or rashly, McCain did not take evasive maneuvers but rather kept on flying straight in an attempt to deliver his bombs on target. The missile blew off his right wing, and he spent the next five years in captivity." Except that this time, it would be America that would spend four years being tortured.

=======================

EDU-MA-CATION Policy

Since education is in the news--and who knows...it might come up in the VP Debate--I'd like to look at candidate positions on Education. Of course, this is always supposing that Palin will actually adhere to McCain's ideas on education...

PBS' NewsHour with Jim Lehrer had a good summary in mid-September. Some of the important points are below:

The focus on education has been driven by Obama, who has been endorsed by both major teaching unions.

Obama:

• proposes rewarding effective teachers and teachers in underserved areas with salary incentives as well as recruiting new talented teachers, as does McCain.
  
• want to train 30,000 highly qualified teachers a year, and expand mentoring programs matching new teachers with successful experienced teachers.
  
• puts an emphasis on teacher accountability, which has similarities to President George Bush's controversial No Child Left Behind education law, though Obama has proposed changes to that law and spoken out against the focus on teaching to standardized tests.
• Obama proposes spending $19 billion in new education spending.
  Much of that money would go to early education – before kids are 5 years old. Obama says it is important to reach children before they fall behind in school.
• Obama has said new spending in education (funded in part by raising taxes on families earning more than $250,000) is necessary to fulfill the under-funded goals of No Child Left Behind and to provide teachers and students with the resources they need all the way through their education process.
• Obama is opposed to vouchers and instead has proposed increasing funding for charter schools from $200 million a year to $400 million.

McCain:

• has praised the underlying goals of No Child Left Behind to close achievement gaps between minority and white children and increase accountability, but he has also proposed additional reforms to the education system. "We need to shake up failed school bureaucracies with competition, empower parents with choice," McCain said during his nomination acceptance speech on September 4. "Some may choose a better public school. Some may choose a private one. Many will choose a charter school. But they will have the choice, and their children will have that opportunity."
• puts the idea of choice as central to his education policy, which contains fewer new ideas than Obama's policy platform.
• supports vouchers, which would allow parents to use money they would have paid to taxes for public education to pay for a private school education instead. Vouchers are controversial because they take money out of the public school system and give it to private schools, including religious schools.
• McCain lumps charter schools and private school vouchers together as two good options
• McCain has also said that he wants to develop "virtual schools" and curriculums, allowing students to take more online courses.
• McCain has suggested keeping spending at current levels. McCain's campaign argues there is enough money to fund increased achievement.

Both:

• Both McCain and Obama support providing more money for college students and government efforts to fix student loan programs.
  
• Both also support charter schools -- public schools that are free from many of the regulations that apply to traditional public schools. Charter schools are free to students, but often have a particular focus such as science, arts or business, and students have to apply or enter a lottery to be able to attend.
  

On September 10 he delivered a major education policy speech in the key election state of Ohio-- well worth watching if you haven't seen it -- another example of Obama at his best.
More from the National Center for Policy Analysis on education.
And of course, more from Obama's website and McCain's website.

==========================

So, let's go, on with the show! But as Betty points out, leave us not forget that it is JUST a show, and there are more important balls for us to keep our eyes on, as pointed out in this interesting article in HuffPo: "This election won't be won or lost at the debates. Nor will it be determined by the two campaigns' "ground games" -- their get-out-the-vote efforts. Nor, unfortunately, will its outcome even depend on how many Americans wake up on Election Day intending to vote for one candidate or the other. Instead, my fear is that the Electoral College results will hang on the swing state voting systems' vulnerability to sabotage." Note how many of these happen in swing states:

• Telling out-of-state college students they can't register (VA, CO)
  
• Distributing absentee ballots addressed to the wrong clerk's office (WI)
• Planned Election Day challenges to voters whose homes were foreclosed upon (FL, MI, OH)

36 days to the election! Reminder again that time is running out--for many states, you must register to vote well in advance of the elections. RockTheVote's list of voter registration deadlines. Here are some upcoming dates--forward this on to your friends in the appropriate states (swing states in bold):

• THIS Saturday Oct 4: Alaska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Washington
• NEXT Monday, Oct 6: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, DC, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia.
• NEXT Tuesday, Oct 7: Illinois, New Mexico
• NEXT Wednesday, Oct 8: Missouri
  

If you're voting absentee, you may have to get your ballot in weeks before the Nov 4th Election date. Declare Yourself has links to each state's voter information page where you can find out how to get your absentee ballot.

Please do feel free to forward this on to anyone you think will enjoy it -- and if they want to be added to the list, just let me know! And, if you're up late at night worrying, there's always procrastination on my political page.

ME:)


P.S. Because I like pretty graphs... Enjoy some of the fun below or on my site:

Real Clear Politics:

Political Arithmetik:

ElectoralVote.com

FiveThirtyEight.com

Washington Post:

Wall Street Journal:

CNN:

NYTimes:

Princeton Election Consortium:

ElectoralVote.com:

RealClearPolitics.Com:

FiveThirtyEight.com:

CONTINUE READING...