Thursday, September 10, 2009

PUBLIC OPTION NOW! Edition

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Here we go folks... I'd bang my head against the wall, but I'm unsure about the quality of the health care I'd receive...

Again, I can barely turn on CNN in the mornings because I know someone is going to say something about health care that will make me absolutely livid. Someone will say "trigger option" one more time and I'm going to put my head through the TV in an effort to scream directly at Olympia Snowe that people need %*^&%! health care RIGHT NOW. Like this second. Like twenty years ago. Like ONE HUNDRED years ago.

The Power to Cloud Men's Minds....
The debate -- if you can call it that-- is so freaking contorted now that nobody knows what side is up. August was, if you believe the pundits, a total disaster of town hall brawls. People are out there shouting "Keep your goddamned government hands off my Medicare!"

Voices of reason and logic, like Robert Reich--a former secretary of Labor and now professor at UC Berkeley-- are being practically drowned out in the furor. Here's his explanation of the public option, clear and simple.
http://maryellenhunt.com/politicalrant/uploaded_images/RobertReich-videocap.png

But summertime's over, babycakes. It's time for the big B.O. to take things in hand because frankly this bipartisanshit-- sorry, bipartisanship thang ain't working out.
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The Character of Our Country
In case you missed it, the full text of Obama's address to Congress is here. (Video here) Thank God, because just as Obama was getting to the emotional peak -- "That large-heartedness – that concern and regard for the plight of others – is not a partisan feeling. It is not a Republican or a Democratic feeling. It, too, is part of the American character." my DVR cut off. Doesn't matter. Here's the rest.

You see, our predecessors understood that government could not, and should not, solve every problem. They understood that there are instances when the gains in security from government action are not worth the added constraints on our freedom. But they also understood that the danger of too much government is matched by the perils of too little; that without the leavening hand of wise policy, markets can crash, monopolies can stifle competition, and the vulnerable can be exploited. And they knew that when any government measure, no matter how carefully crafted or beneficial, is subject to scorn; when any efforts to help people in need are attacked as un-American; when facts and reason are thrown overboard and only timidity passes for wisdom, and we can no longer even engage in a civil conversation with each other over the things that truly matter – that at that point we don't merely lose our capacity to solve big challenges. We lose something essential about ourselves.

What was true then remains true today. I understand how difficult this health care debate has been. I know that many in this country are deeply skeptical that government is looking out for them. I understand that the politically safe move would be to kick the can further down the road – to defer reform one more year, or one more election, or one more term.

But that's not what the moment calls for. That's not what we came here to do. We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it. I still believe we can act even when it's hard. I still believe we can replace acrimony with civility, and gridlock with progress. I still believe we can do great things, and that here and now we will meet history's test.
Because that is who we are. That is our calling. That is our character.


Shape the future. The time to call or email your reps is now.

Contact your individual representatives and senators.
Look 'em up, folks -- call your friends in Montana, call your friends in Blue Dog states. It's time to make a squawk --to inform these Congress members that THEIR jobs are on the line. Email is cheap -- health care isn't.

If you're interested in the details of Obama's own plan, visit the White House site.

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In this week's New York Times, Paul Krugman puts out a simple defense of the public option:

Most arguments against the public option are based either on deliberate misrepresentation of what that option would mean, or on remarkably thorough misunderstanding of the concept, which persists to a frustrating degree: I was really surprised to see Joe Klein worrying about the creation of a system in which doctors work directly for the government, British-style, when that has nothing whatsoever to do with the public option as proposed. (Forty years of Medicare haven’t turned the US into that kind of system — why would having a public plan change that?)


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And about the National Health Service...

Much maligned in the news in the month of August was the UK's National Health Service. Eric's mom-- who also sent me a link to this very interesting, and not atypical, story about the NHS-- was out here for a visit last week and happened to be staying in a B&B with a physician from the UK's National Health Service. I'm grateful to her and to Dr. Stephen Shepherd for letting me reprint some of his thoughts on this health care debate.

SOME THOUGHTS OF A VISITING GP

Whilst visiting San Francisco in August 2009 a few thoughts occurred to me concerning the current debate in the US about the proposed changes to the US Health care system and comparisons with the UK's NHS.

In every country in the world there are basically only 3 ways of accessing health care.

The rich simply pay cash for whatever they want.

Those with health insurance received 'managed care'

The poor are thrown on the basic healthcare provided by the State

In the UK the NHS covers both the last two catagorys. The standard of care for ALL is equivalent to the managed care received by US citizens with insurance. A few people in the UK have private health insurance, usually as a perk of their job. In the past this allowed you to bypass some of the NHS queues. Nowadays, with the better financed NHS, private health insurance tends just to allow you to have private room, rather than share a 4-bedded bay, which is the norm in NHS hospitals.

The vast majority of hospital specialists or Consultants do most of their work in the NHS and do private work to supplement their NHS income. Private hospitals are not really set up for complex procedures and if you are seriously ill you are best off with the NHS.

The key to the NHS is the General Practitioner or GP (Primary Care Physician). Your GP will refer you for both NHS and Insurance referrals, but will provide the bulk of your care. Most chronic diseases in the UK are dealt with by the GP, who will know you and your past history and will tailor your healthcare for you personally. Primary Care is very strong in the UK.

Now to deal with a few points:

Rationing: all healthcare is rationed, except for the rich. In the UK most treatments are covered by the NHS and your doctor is free to prescribe any drug or treatment that is marketed in the UK. The exceptions are new expensive treatments whose clinical effectiveness are assessed by an independent body called the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE), before they become widely available on the NHS. In the US health care is rationed by the Insurance companies managed care system, or by your ability to pay. I understand it is not unknown for people to die in the US as they lack the money to fund their treatment. I leave the reader to decide which is the better system.

Waiting Times and Choice: in the past the wait for routine procedures could be measured in years, but since the advent of Tony Blair's Labour Government a lot of money has gone to improve matters. As a GP I can use the new Choose and Book computer system to book appointments during a patient's consultation, at a time and date of their choosing. Most routine appointments will be within a month. It is unusual for the wait for surgery to be more than 3 months. If your GP thinks you may have cancer, there is a rapid access system which gets you to see a Specialist within 2 weeks and any definitive treatment started within a month.

Quality: British doctors are trained to the same standard as those in the US and foreign graduates wanting to work in the UK must have a good standard of English and meet the clinical standards set by the various Royal colleges that supervise training in the UK.

Income: when the NHS was set up in 1945 many doctors feared that they would be out of pocket. This has proved to be far from the case. Most GPs earn £120000 from the NHS with very little from private work. Experienced nurses earn from £20-30000. Hospital Consultants earn around £100000 from the NHS, but their additional private income can vary from zero to £100000+ according to their speciality and/or personal choice.

Innovation: the charge that the NHS discourages innovation and invention just makes me laugh. The route to being a hospital consultant is through research. All hospital consultants only get their position once they have done some research and continue to do so once in post. British drug companies are amongst the best in the world and around 40% of current treatments had their origins in the UK.

I admit to wondering what lies behind the opposition to President Obama's health care reforms. I suspect that many Americans realise that sorting out your healthcare system will inevitably lead to other social reforms.

The NHS is a small part of a whole raft of social benefits that make up the British Welfare State.

Benefits are provided if you are unemployed, sick, disabled or caring for someone who cannot care for themselves. Everyone gets an old age state pension from 65. The elderly are one of the main beneficiaries of the NHS. Should you need residential or nursing home care as you get older then the state pays for that and allows you to keep significant personal assets.

The poor and other disadvantaged groups are not left to fend for themselves on the streets. Local government in the UK has a statutory duty to provide social housing for all who need it, together with social services care. The homeless are not left to roam the streets, but are housed in hostels, where they have their own lockable room. These hostels provide temporary accommodation until the local authorities can find somewhere permanent, usually in the form of a one or two bed apartment.

This extensive welfare system is the result of the Socialist Government of 1945 and is the result of the report carried out by Beveridge in the later years of WW2. It is important for Americans to remember that the UK, and Europe in general, is far more left wing than the US. The main British right wing party, the Conservatives, are much more akin to left leaning Democrats. The Labour Party is a left wing party that has moved a little more to the right under Tony Blair. Some of the views I have read from Republicans would have no place in British politics, except in our extreme right wing parties like the British National Party (BNP), who are viewed with contempt by the majority in the UK.

The downside of course to the Welfare state is the cost. Income tax in the UK starts at 20% and rises to 40% on any income in excess of £38000.

On mainland Europe the Social care systems are more generous than the UK, but their income tax rates are higher. In the US it seems you provide very minimal benefits, but have low income tax.

In the UK we have gone for the middle ground between the two.

A UK style system would almost certainly lead to the US middle class losing their mortgage tax relief, as happened in the UK. Perhaps this is the main reason for the opposition?

Benefits in the UK are aimed at providing a comprehensive safety net with benefit levels set to allow you to survive and stay in your own home. No one would choose to stay on benefit as even a modest income will give a better quality of life. For instance, except in times of recession, most people made unemployed would have found a new job within a month. The UK is still a net importer of employees.

A few people do slip through the net, especially in London, but people begging on the street is unusual in the UK and often they are people who have great difficulty engaging with any form of authority. Strenuous efforts are made by many state and charity groups to engage with these individuals.

Remember even these people have the right to see a GP and access all parts of the NHS. I have worked for a practice that provided services targeted at the homeless.

I am shocked whilst in the US, the richest country in the world, to see such affluence along side such abject poverty.

I would like to remind the US: 'No man is an island.'

Dr Stephen Shepherd, GP

Ashby de la Zouch, Leicestershire

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Final words from the Grand Fromage
Watching the funeral of Ted Kennedy last week, I couldn't help but be overwhelmed by how much there is left to do-- and from the top of Ted's list: the "cause of my life", which he outlined in an article for Newsweek last month. As usual, he doesn't just bemoan the opposition they face, but looks at the possibilities.

Incremental measures won't suffice anymore. We need to succeed where Teddy Roosevelt and all others since have failed. The conditions now are better than ever. In Barack Obama, we have a president who's announced that he's determined to sign a bill into law this fall. And much of the business community, which has suffered the economic cost of inaction, is helping to shape change, not lobbying against it. I know this because I've spent the past year, along with my staff, negotiating with business leaders, hospital administrators, and doctors. As soon as I left the hospital last summer, I was on the phone, and I've kept at it. Since the inauguration, the administration has been deeply involved in the process. So have my Senate colleagues—in particular Max Baucus, the chair of the Finance Committee, and my friend and partner in this mission, Chris Dodd. Even those most ardently opposed to reform in the past have been willing to make constructive gestures now.

I long ago learned that you have to be a realist as you pursue your ideals. But whatever the compromises, there are several elements that are essential to any health-reform plan worthy of the name.

First, we have to cover the uninsured. When President Clinton proposed his plan, 33 million Americans had no health insurance. Today the official number has reached 47 million, but the economic crisis will certainly push the total higher. Unless we act now, within a few years, 55 million Americans could be left without coverage even as the economy recovers.

All Americans should be required to have insurance. For those who can't afford the premiums, we can provide subsidies. We'll make it illegal to deny coverage due to preexisting conditions. We'll also prohibit the practice of charging women higher premiums than men, and the elderly far higher premiums than anyone else. The bill drafted by the Senate health committee will let children be covered by their parents' policy until the age of 26, since first jobs after high school or college often don't offer health benefits.

To accomplish all of this, we have to cut the costs of health care. For families who've seen health-insurance premiums more than double—from an average of less than $6,000 a year to nearly $13,000 since 1999—one of the most controversial features of reform is one of the most vital. It's been called the "public plan." Despite what its detractors allege, it's not "socialism." It could take a number of different forms. Our bill favors a "community health-insurance option." In short, this means that the federal government would negotiate rates—in keeping with local economic conditions—for a plan that would be offered alongside private insurance options. This will foster competition in pricing and services. It will be a safety net, giving Americans a place to go when they can't find or afford private insurance, and it's critical to holding costs down for everyone.

We also need to move from a system that rewards doctors for the sheer volume of tests and treatments they prescribe to one that rewards quality and positive outcomes. For example, in Medicare today, 18 percent of patients discharged from a hospital are readmitted within 30 days—at a cost of more than $15 billion in 2005. Most of these readmissions are unnecessary, but we don't reward hospitals and doctors for preventing them. By changing that, we'll save billions of dollars while improving the quality of care for patients.

Social justice is often the best economics. We can help disabled Americans who want to live in their homes instead of a nursing home. Simple things can make all the difference, like having the money to install handrails or have someone stop by and help every day. It's more humane and less costly—for the government and for families—than paying for institutionalized care. That's why we should give all Americans a tax deduction to set aside a small portion of their earnings each month to provide for long-term care
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There have been lots of tributes to Ted Kennedy of course, but I remember this one as especially lovely, from last year at this time, when Ted Kennedy appeared at the Democratic National Convention. But perhaps even more moving was Senator Robert Byrd's tribute:

I had hoped and prayed that this day would never come. My heart and soul weeps at the loss of my best friend in the Senate, my beloved friend, Ted Kennedy.

Senator Kennedy and I both witnessed too many wars in our lives, and believed too strongly in the Constitution of the United States to allow us to go blindly into war. That is why we stood side by side in the Senate against the war in Iraq.

Neither years of age nor years of political combat, nor his illness, diminished the idealism and energy of this talented, imaginative, and intelligent man. And that is the kind of Senator Ted Kennedy was. Throughout his career, Senator Kennedy believed in a simple premise: that our society's greatness lies in its ability and willingness to provide for its less fortunate members. Whether striving to increase the minimum wage, ensuring that all children have medical insurance, or securing better access to higher education, Senator Kennedy always showed that he cares deeply for those whose needs exceed their political clout. Unbowed by personal setbacks or by the terrible sorrows that have fallen upon his family, his spirit continued to soar, and he continued to work as hard as ever to make his dreams a reality.

In his honor and as a tribute to his commitment to his ideals, let us stop the shouting and name calling and have a civilized debate on health care reform which I hope, when legislation has been signed into law, will bear his name for his commitment to insuring the health of every American.



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Monday, January 19, 2009

Would McCain have done the same?

In Bipartisan Appeal, Obama Praises McCain:
"In a major bipartisan appeal on the eve of his inauguration, Barack Obama called John McCain a hero and praised his history as someone who has sought common ground — without mentioning that Mr. McCain evinced little of that side during the presidential campaign.

“There are few Americans who understand this need for common purpose and common effort better than John McCain,” Mr. Obama said tonight at a dinner he is hosting for Mr. McCain at the Washington Hilton. “It is what he has strived for and achieved throughout his life. It is built into the very content of his character.”



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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

It's so, Joe

Democrats Let Lieberman Keep Senate Chairmanship: It's magnanimous (and I suppose one could argue will at least store up some good karma...)
"Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, the Democrat-turned-independent from Connecticut, was allowed to keep his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on Tuesday despite his support for Senator John McCain in the presidential campaign."
Democratic senators voted instead to oust Mr. Lieberman from the Environment and Public Works Committee, where he had been chairman of a subcommittee. That penalty was a slap on the wrist compared with the prospect of losing the homeland security leadership post.

“He’s part of this caucus,” the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, said after the Democratic caucus voted behind closed doors in the old Senate chamber off the Capitol Rotunda. “We are not looking back. We are looking forward.”


In addition, Senate Republicans decided to take the "wait and see" approach with Ted "I never wanted that massage chair" Stevens:

On the other side of the aisle, Senate Republicans deferred action on any move to expel Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska because of his recent conviction on felony charges that he failed to report numerous gifts. The Republicans prefer to wait for the result of the election, in which Mr. Stevens currently trails his Democratic opponent, Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage, with some absentee ballots still to be counted.

The Republicans’ action, or non-action, came on Mr. Stevens’s 85th birthday.
Happy birthday, Ted.

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Monday, November 17, 2008

Keep your friends close...

...And your enemies closer.

The NY Times reports that Obama met with John McCain on Monday:

The meeting on Monday in Chicago, coming just under two weeks after the election, represented an unusually early effort at reconciliation after a sometimes bitterly fought campaign.

The president-elect and the Arizona senator hold relatively similar views on issues like climate change and ethics reform where cooperation might be fruitful. More urgently, Mr. Obama might be hoping for help in pushing for a new economic stimulus package that faces stiff Republican resistance.

Also taking part was to be Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a trusted McCain ally, and Representative Rahm Emanuelof Illinois, who is to be Mr. Obama’s White House chief of staff.

Advisers to both men have said that they did not expect Mr. McCain to be offered a job in the new administration.


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Friday, November 14, 2008

Haven't we met before?

HuffPo reports that John McCain and Barack Obama will meet Monday: "'On Monday, President-elect Barack Obama and Senator John McCain will meet in Chicago at transition headquarters. It's well known that they share an important belief that Americans want and deserve a more effective and efficient government, and will discuss ways to work together to make that a reality. They will be joined in the meeting by Senator Lindsey Graham and Congressman Rahm Emanuel.'"


I have to say, our man has class -- West Wing fans want to know, will it be a Matt Santos-Arnold Vinick sort of thing? Hillary's name is being floated for Sec. of State, but will it perhaps be McCain? The ultimate bipartisan gesture...

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Nebraska-02?


You know I haven't been paying attention when Obama gets another electoral vote and I don't even notice!

Yes, Obama won Nebraska -02 and picked up another electoral vote!!! More from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, and after the jump, details from Omaha:

For the first time ever, a blue circle will appear in Nebraska on national electoral maps.

Democrat Barack Obama won the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District on Friday, scooping up one of the state's five electoral votes.

In the process, he made history and shone the spotlight on Nebraska's unusual electoral college system.

Obama won 8,434 of 15,039 mail-in ballots counted Friday by Douglas County election officials. These early ballots arrived in the election commissioner's office too late to be included in Tuesday's election results.

The additional votes gave Obama a 1,260-vote lead over Republican John McCain in unofficial returns. McCain won the popular vote statewide and four electoral votes.

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Friday, November 7, 2008

Commemorative Editions

The Big Issues of Newsweek, Time and well, just about everyone else int he news media, have hit the stands. Newsweek's behind the scenes coverage, which we saw snippets of on HuffPo, is really detailed and intense. It's like a novel. I think they've actually produced an article longer and more in-depth than the ones you find in the New Yorker! And written to much higher than a sixth grade level. Amazing!

Secrets of the 2008 Campaign
  • Chapter 1: "In November 2006, Greg Craig sat next to George Stevens, an old friend of the Robert Kennedy clan, at another Obama speech. Stevens leaned over to Craig and said, "What do you think of this guy for president? I haven't heard anybody like this since Bobby Kennedy." Craig instantly replied, 'Sign me up.' Stevens and Craig approached Obama coming out of the speech and asked, 'What are you doing in 2008?' Obama gave them a big grin and said, 'Oh, man, it wasn't that good.' But before long Craig and Stevens were raising money for Obama's political-action committee, the Hope Fund. Obama was amused by the devotion of the two old Kennedy hands. After a while, every time he saw the two men he would say, 'Here come the Kool-Aid boys.'"
  • Chapter 2: "At the time of the 2000 campaign, McCain had pictured himself as Luke Skywalker, going up against the Death Star. Rumbling along with his aides and a gaggle of mostly friendly reporters in a bus called the Straight Talk Express, he had relished the team spirit—the unit cohesion, in the language of his military past—and the teasing back-and-forth. Not long after the 2000 election, he had spoken of the heady time with a NEWSWEEK reporter over a standard-issue McCain breakfast (glazed doughnuts, coffee) in his Senate office. He was sitting at one end of his couch, the purplish melanoma scar down the left side of his face veiled in shadow. 'Yeah, we were a band of brothers,' he said, his voice low, his eyes shining. The 2000 race had been a glorious adventure, a heroic Lost Cause. But the fact was that McCain had lost."
  • Chapter 3: "In the days after his wife's back- from-the-brink victory in New Hampshire, Bill Clinton was full of righteous indignation. The former president had amassed an 81-page list of all the unfair and nasty things the Obama campaign had said, or was alleged to have said, about Hillary Clinton. The press was still in love with Obama, or so it seemed to Clinton, who complained to pretty much anyone who would listen. If the press wouldn't go after Obama, then Hillary's campaign would have to do the job, the ex-president urged. On Sunday, Jan. 13, Clinton got worked up in a phone conversation with Donna Brazile, a direct, strong-willed African-American woman who had been Al Gore's campaign manager and advised the Clintons from time to time. 'If Barack Obama is nominated, it will be the worst denigration of public service,' he told her, ranting on for much of an hour. Brazile kept asking him, 'Why are you so angry?'"
  • Chapter 4: "Throughout the spring of 2008, McCain's uneven speaking style was a source of frustration to his aides. They knew how open and disarmingly honest he could be when he felt like it. But his stubborn integrity (or childish willfulness, depending on your point of view) was as much a liability as a virtue. When McCain didn't like the words he had been given to read, his inner Dennis the Menace would emerge, and he would sabotage his own speech. McCain's subversive instincts had long shown up in his speaking style. Before the 2000 primary in South Carolina, when he spoke in favor of flying the Confederate flag over the state capitol, he would pull a piece of paper out of his pocket and read from it. It was obvious that he didn't really believe what he was saying and was ashamed of his pandering. His aides had trouble coaching him because the very act of telling him what to do could incite a rebellion."
  • Chapter 5: "There wasn't real panic at Obama headquarters on North Michigan Avenue—such emotionalism (normal in most campaigns) was taboo. But Palin was so unexpected a choice that some staffers were rattled. So this aide, a veteran of some nasty campaigns, would go up to staffers and say, 'Get her out of your head! It's McCain!' It was an effort to force the slightly dazed staffers to see that they needed to stay focused on McCain, not his running mate."
  • Chapter 6: "Never one to wing it, Obama studied for the three official presidential debates, scheduled for roughly once a week from late September to mid-October, as if he were taking the bar exam. He memorized details on new weapons systems so he wouldn't look like a neophyte on national defense. But the real challenge, he knew, was not in the details of policy or his mastery of defense-spending arcana. He would need to show something more ineffable but profound—a true command presence. As his aides never ceased to remind him, he would have to look 'presidential.'"
  • Chapter 7: "On the last full day of campaigning, Monday, Nov. 3, Obama walked out onstage and surveyed the crowd for a few extra seconds before giving his stump speech. The crowd was in a festive mood. A middle-aged woman with a silk scarf salsa-danced with a beaming Latino man, holding both hands above his head and flashing the victory sign as he spun and gyrated to the song 'Ain't No Stopping Us Now.' Reporters, who rarely budged from the laptops in the press room to hear Obama deliver his well-worn speech, streamed toward the stage to get a better view of the candidate. They seemed to sense that the long campaign was finally over, that this was their last chance to see the political phenomenon, who rarely came back to talk to the press. 'I have just one word for you, Florida,' Obama declared to the crowd. 'Tomorrow.' He drew on the oratory of the civil-rights movement, intoning, 'We have a righteous wind at our backs.'"

Pick up a copy-- if you can find it.

Oh, and yet one more set of revelations about Palin: "Another reporter asked Steve Schmidt if he was happy with "the pick of Palin." He ducked the question. Schmidt was trying, not very hard, to hide his true feelings. He had been compelled to personally take over Palin's debate prep when she seemed unwilling to engage in the drudge work of learning the issues. McCain's advisers had been frustrated when Palin refused to talk to donors because she found it corrupting, and they were furious when they heard rumors that Todd Palin was calling around to Alaska bigwigs telling them to hold their powder until 2012. The day of the third debate, Palin refused to go onstage with New Hampshire GOP Sen. John Sununu and Jeb Bradley, a New Hampshire congressman running for the Senate, because they were pro-choice and because Bradley opposed drilling in Alaska. The McCain campaign ordered her onstage at the next campaign stop, but she refused to acknowledge the two Republican candidates standing behind her. McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin (perhaps once a week when they were not traveling together, estimated one adviser). Aides kept him in the dark about Palin's spending on clothes because they were sure he'd be offended. In his concession speech, McCain praised Palin, but the body language between them onstage was not particularly friendly. (Palin had asked to speak; Schmidt vetoed the request.)"

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Monday, November 3, 2008

The Boss

Springsteen sings "The Rising" at the rally in Cleveland.

Obama exuded confidence. "The last couple of days, I've been just feeling good," he told 80,000 gathered to hear him--and singer Bruce Springsteen --in Cleveland. "The crowds seem to grow and everybody's got a smile on their face. You start thinking that maybe we might be able to win an election on November 4th." Indeed, Election Day is becoming a misnomer. About 27 million absentee and early votes were cast in 30 states as of Saturday night, more than ever. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in pre-Election Day voting in key states.

The view from a Republican who got dragged along on the canvassing trail by his wife..."I had the chance to view that organization up close this month when I canvassed for him. I'm not sure I learned much about his chances, but I learned a lot about myself and about this election...I've learned that this election is about the heart of America. It's about the young people who are losing hope and the old people who have been forgotten. It's about those who have worked all their lives and never fully realized the promise of America, but see that promise for their grandchildren in Barack Obama. The poor see a chance, when they often have few. I saw hope in the eyes and faces in those doorways.My wife and I went out last weekend to knock on more doors. But this time, not because it was her idea. I don't know what it's going to do for the Obama campaign, but it's doing a lot for me."

The man in the plane: "The lines in Mr. Obama's face have grown a bit deeper since he started his campaign, with the notches of gray hair along his temples far more pronounced. He often carries the look of exhaustion, but flying the other night to Nevada, where he arrived after midnight, Mr. Obama passed on the chance to take much of a nap.Instead, he walked around the cabin of his airplane, which is about the size of a bedroom, and talked about a favorite diversion, the coming basketball season, as he took care not to step on a senior foreign policy adviser, Mark Lippert, who was asleep on the floor.

"His world is awash in powerful, conflicting emotions: the realization, presumably, that he may be about to become president; the huge optimism that he has unleashed, evident in the crowds he is drawing (and something he has told aides worries him a bit, given the expectations set for him); the weighty thinking he is gradually giving to how he would staff a government and deal with a transition in such a difficult time. All of this is taking place as a woman who played a large role in raising him, his grandmother, is approaching death. '"What if I disappoint people?"' Valerie Jarrett, a close friend and adviser, recalled Mr. Obama asking at several points throughout the campaign. 'That's what gives him the energy to keep getting up every day.'"

The Arizona Daily Star endorses Obama! "Like a race car driver going into a turn, a leader must see not only what confronts our nation today but envision where we come out on the other side. Obama sees how the United States is connected to other nations through our economic, immigration, national security and energy policies. No one can thrive alone. Obama sees a foreign policy where force is but one tool. He envisions countries collaborating to confront bad actors and shared challenges such as global warming, poverty, terrorism, disease and religious extremism."

One of the really heartening things has been to see how many people have invested into this presidential campaign. While he's been criticized for turning down public financing, in the end, Obama made a much more profound point by getting a "buy-in" from 3.2 million people (to raise $641 million) this campaign. And for those who wanted to do more, his campaign inspired a kind of do-it-yourself creativity and energy that frankly, I've never seen before. The NY Times on Sunday profiled Susan Skolfield, a Winter Park, FL resident who chafed that the Obama campaign wouldn't be opening an office in her mainly GOP-leaning town. "So Ms. Skolfield opened one herself. She dug into her own pocket for the initial $1,350 in rent, hooked up telephones and computers, hauled in furniture and printed up fliers for an early September opening party that drew nearly a thousand people."

Andrew Sullivan in the London Times: "We are indeed on the verge of something that seems even more incredible the closer it gets, something more than a mere election. This is America, after all. It is a place that has seen great cruelty and hardship in its time. But it is also a place that yearns to believe naively in mornings rather than evenings, that cherishes dawns over dusks, that is not embarrassed by its own sense of destiny. In this unlikely mixed-race figure of Barack Obama, we will for a brief moment perhaps see a nation reimagined and a world of possibilities open up. For a brief moment at least. As they have learnt to say in some of the most blighted parts of the world at some of the most desperate times: know hope."

Paul Krugman's column today muses upon what an Obama win would mean for the Republican party. Would it really force the party to ponder where it has been heading, and move the party fromt he far-right to a more central stance? Or will it become MORE extreme as socially moderate fiscal conservatives decide to leave?

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The New Media

This election has been awash in new technologies, and I can't imagine how we ever conducted an election before blogs, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, online donations, before email, before websites, Jeez, how did anyone ever get INFORMATION? Clearly Obama has been the master of this new world. And McCain? Well, he's still getting the hang of the Selectric typewriter.

The Washington Post highlighted the role of bloggers and social networking, who get the word out through emails, online posts and socnets like Facebook to ever-widening circles. (ahem.) "With the Internet making it easier than ever for voters to fund a candidate, act as their own publishers and search for information (and misinformation), the Washington political establishment -- candidates, strategists and journalists -- has been forced to loosen its grip on setting the narrative of the campaign. For voters such as Myers and Stoynoff, this is a sign of how the electoral process has been democratized and individualized. It's neither McCain's nor Obama's campaign. It's their campaign."

Obama's campaign has an amazing number of videos up on YouTube too, 1805 of them as of 2 pm, with over 18 million views on the channel. They must have people on the thing 24/7 editing video. My favorite for today is Matthew Broderick's "Ferris Bueller" riff-- "Election Day is tomorrow...Take the day off, but do it the right way...I promise you, it will be a day off you're not going to forget..." Keep watching to the end.

Obama's texting program is another one of those areas that has really captured the younger generation."Even officials at groups such as Rock the Vote and PIRGs have been surprised by the breadth and scope of Obama's texting program. In August, Obama introduced Obama Mobile, a site where users can access the latest Obama news and download videos on their cell phones -- a first for a presidential candidate. Two months later, in another electoral first, the campaign rolled out a free iPhone application that supporters can to organize their address book by state and make it easier for them to make calls. Within the first week, the free application was the eighth most downloaded on iTunes. As of Sunday night, it ranked No. 50, ahead of AOL Instant Messaging and behind iBaseball. Supporters receive texts specific to their state. Voters living in states that allow early voting received this text on Friday at 5:41 p.m. EST: "Vote for Barack NOW. Early vote locations are open until 7 pm today. Find your location at VoteForChange.com or call 877-235-6226." Supporters in Virginia got this text at 11:04 a.m. Saturday: "Help make history. Volunteer on Election Day to help Barack win VA! We still need to fill many 2 hour shifts. REPLY with V2 your NAME ZIP (ex: V2 John 22030)." Identical, but state-specific, versions of the text were sent in Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado."

But even beyond the campaign's official programs, there are viral texts making the rounds just like viral emails. One of the most popular is quoted from Jay-Z's freestyling at a concert in New York (forward to 1:53 into the video):"Rosa sat so Martin could walk. Martin walked so Barack could run. Barack is running so our children can fly."

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Sunday, November 2, 2008

Endorsement roundup

I've always had a soft spot for Ron Reagan, Jr. ever since he danced with the Joffrey Ballet. Now he lends the Reagan name to his endorsement for Barack Obama.

On the other side, John McCain picked up the ALL important endorsement of Dick Cheney. Oh, thankyouthankyouthankyouthankyou THANK YOU..... At a rally in Pueblo, Obama said, "I'd like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement, because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy," he said. "George Bush may be in an undisclosed location now, but Dick Cheney's out there on the campaign trail because he'd be delighted to pass the baton to John McCain." Obama's ad people are ASTONISHING. They had an ad out in hour.

McCain did his own version of the "infomercial" with Tina Fey on Saturday Night Live, making his pitch to America from the QVC channel. McCain starred in the opening segment (with a surprise cameo from Cindy) and also popped into the Weekend Update. Once again, if THIS had been the John McCain Obama was running against, we'd have a much tighter race. So sad.

Also, if you actually stayed up to watch the very not-funny rest of the show, you might have noticed that McCain was still there at the end of the show, hanging out with the cast. Dude. It's 54 hours until polls start opening. You got your media exposure. Hahahah, you were funny. Now, don't you have SOMETHING BETTER TO DO THAN HANG OUT AT SNL?
<== To the left, a photo of the McCain headquarters in Florida's Walton County -- precisely 72 hours before the poll close. To quote Jon Stewart, "You don't even want this, do you?"

By the way, in a brief historical note, Fontaine Maverick, the descendent of the REAL Maverick (for whom the term is named) has done this fab interview explaining why McCain is no maverick. And she wants her name back.


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The Sequels: Return of the Ugly, Son of Ugly, Ugly versus Mothra....

Last blast of the ugly. "John McCain faces a daunting challenge, the GOP and the McCain campaign have ramped up their negative attacks on Barack Obama. Just to start, McCain attacked Obama's patriotism and Republicans made much hay out of a video that purportedly shows Obama attending a party where Palestinian, and Columbia University Professor, Rashid Khalidi was also a guest."

HuffPo rounds up the last minute desperation TACTICS. Still no strategy, just throw the crap out there and see what sticks to the wall. Obama is a Socialist, Obama is an extremist who hangs out with the PLO sympathizers, Obama is soft on crime, Obama's a "chicken shit," Obama's policies will lead to a second holocaust, Obama's not a US citizen. (???) Jesus, Mary, Joseph, Johnny Mac, could you be any MORE desperate and obvious?

And from overseas comes this ridiculous item: "The Republicans have made a last-minute attempt to prevent Barack Obama's ascent to the White House by trying to recruit an Oxford academic to 'prove' that his autobiography was ghostwritten by a former terrorist. Dr Peter Millican, a philosophy don at Hertford College, Oxford, has devised a computer software program that can detect when works are by the same author by comparing favourite words and phrases. He was contacted last weekend and offered $10,000 (£6,200) to assess alleged similarities between Obama's bestseller, Dreams from My Father, and Fugitive Days, a memoir by William Ayers."

Meanwhile, Palin continues to help the campaign effort in her own inimitable way: "Sarah Palin has unwittingly taken a prank call from a Canadian comedian posing as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and told him she may make a good president in eight years. The Republican vice presidential nominee discussed politics, the perils of hunting with Vice President Dick Cheney, and Sarkozy's 'beautiful wife,' in the telephone call released Saturday. When the caller told Palin she would make a good president, she laughed and replied: 'Maybe in eight years.'"

Oh, and, can someone PLEASE explain to Sarah Palin that we are NOT at war with Iran. Help me out here, folks. What's your opinion? If I smack my head long enough on the table, will I be able to forget that Sarah Palin even exists?

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Song and Dance Sampler

I think the reality is that our side is just more talented.



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Predictions and Pulses

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.
Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!
--Benjamin Franklin

The NY Times weighs in this week with some interesting reports from battleground states:

COLORADO: The state's heavy emphasis on mail-in and early voting means that close to 1.5 million votes, or about 46 percent of the registered total, are already in the can, cast and waiting to be counted. That means two things. First, that a surge, or a misstep, at the last minute can only help or hurt so much, since voter decisions were in many cases made on conclusions reached in mid-to-late October. Second, it mandates, in a still-tight race, a pinpoint, surgical search for the votes still left.

FLORIDA: Emblematic of the challenge was the experience of two Republican canvassers who appeared at Beth Moriarty's door in Orlando Thursday looking for her husband's vote. Her response was blunt. Senator "Y'all are totally at the wrong house," Ms. Moriarty said. "My husband, he's 62, he has never voted for a Democrat in his entire life. Until Tuesday." Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, has a litany of structural advantages to help him. With only days to go, the Obama campaign has more of just about everything: offices (100 to Mr. McCain's 80); advertising money (outspending the McCain campaign four to one in some weeks); and voter registrations (a 660,000 Democratic edge over Republicans, up from 280,000 in 2006).

OHIO: Polls show Mr. Obama with a narrow lead , but even partisans put little stock in those. Hard experience has shown that Ohio tends to offer intense matches and bleary eyes while awaiting election-night returns. Heavily Republican counties line the western and central parts of the state, and Democrats dominate in Columbus, Dayton and Cleveland. But the electoral war is fought out in hazier confines like Chillicothe, a predominantly white city of 21,000 that mirrored the statewide results in the last two elections by going narrowly for President Bush.

PENNSYLVANIA: Senator John McCain has poured $20 million in advertisement purchases here, more than any other state by a long shot. (Still, he is swamped by Mr. Obama, who has spent $34 million here.) The candidate has come to the state more than 16 times since early June, and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, continues to stump here in the waning days of the campaign. But to go to Senator Barack Obama's headquarters in Center City is to see what Mr. McCain is up against. The office is jammed with more than 50 volunteers on computers and on the phones, preparing for an orchestrated get-out-the vote drive. Even a television crew from Indonesia was there to film it, adding to a palpable sense of excitement. By contrast, at a nearby McCain-Palin office, there was not a single volunteer, a reflection of how Mr. McCain is concentrating on drawing votes in more rural areas of Pennsylvania that gravitate toward Republicans.

VIRGINIA: A Democratic presidential candidate has not won Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. But the population trends and bluish political winds, especially in the northern region, have transformed Virginia into what Mayor L. Douglas Wilder of Richmond, who was the nation's first black governor, calls the New Dominion.

MISSOURI: Missouri has voted for the winner in every presidential election save one over the last century, and Mr. Obama seems to be fighting for every ballot in every county, including those areas normally hostile to a liberal Democrat. Senator John McCain has also been campaigning heavily here, as has his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, and polls show the race in Missouri tighter than anywhere in the nation.

NORTH CAROLINA: At a rally here with Michelle Obama the other day, little slips of paper were tucked into the windshields of cars in the parking lot. They announced a free breakfast, paid for by local Democrats, on behalf of Senator Barack Obama on Saturday, the last day of early voting. The fliers were a small reminder of something big — the Obama organization in this state. North Carolina has not seen a real presidential race for a generation. But in one of the biggest surprises of this long campaign season, Mr. Obama has pulled even in the polls with Senator John McCain.

GEORGIA: The campaign initially had Georgia on its wish list, but just two months ago, it went off the air here and moved out some of its paid staff members. Senator John McCain's campaign, meanwhile, treated Georgia as an automatic win. But then came the reports from early polling stations: people were waiting more than four hours in some places to cast their ballots, and 35 percent of them were black. By the time early voting closed on Friday, more than 1.7 million of Georgia's 5.6 million registered voters had cast their ballots, and many of them were in left-leaning urban counties in and around Atlanta, where support for Mr. Obama is at a fever pitch.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: So why should Mr. McCain bother returning to the state? "His theme of Obama meaning higher taxes really resonates here," Ms. Donahue said. "No matter what the polls say the week before the election, New Hampshire voters make their final decision in the last three days. McCain knows it, and that's why he's coming back." Democrats, too, think the race is closer than it seems. One of Mr. Obama's highest-profile surrogates, former President Bill Clinton, is to campaign here Sunday. And in a separate visit last week, Mrs. Clinton warned Democrats not to get complacent.

MONTANA: Senator Barack Obama has run an aggressive campaign here, spending about $160,000 a week on advertising and visiting the state five times during the campaign, including spending the Fourth of July in Butte. That kind of attention is unheard of. "He has a real shot," Pat Williams, a former longtime Democratic Congressman from Montana, said of Mr. Obama. "Part of it is his incessant traveling in Montana and the lack of a single footprint by McCain." But there is one unpredictable factor that may help decide the race: Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman running on the Constitutional Party line here. Mr. Paul's supporters here asked if they could put his name on the ballot. He agreed, then changed his mind; but his request to be taken off the ballot came too late.


==========================

Chuck Todd of MSNBC gave his predictions of what to expect in all 50 states, with hints about Senate and House races too. (You can also watch Chuck from today's Meet the Press, pointing out that even if McCain won EVERY SINGLE toss-up state today, he'd still lose the election.)

- Arizona: If McCain loses, he will have a tough reelection fight in 2010 again Janet Napolitano
- Arkansas: The only state with a Democratic governor and two senators McCain will win
- Connecticut: Watch Chris Shays in CT-04 defend the only House GOP seat in New England
- Florida: Many key House races here (FL-08, FL-16, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25)
- Georgia: Chambliss-Martin Senate race is a cliffhanger and might need a runoff
- Hawaii: If Obama wins, will the Western White House be in Honolulu? Reporters prefer it to Crawford
- Illinois: Will Obama's coattails be long enough to swing IL-10 and IL-11?
- Indiana: Could be close
- Maryland: Democrats might pick up another House seat making in 7 out of 8
- Michigan: McCain's decision to abandon the state may cause the GOP to lose MI-07 and MI-09
- Minnesota: The closest Senate race of the year is the Coleman-Franken-Barkley race here
- Mississippi: If black turnout surges, it might wash away Roger Wicker in the Senate race
- Missouri: The most Republican of the big swing states. If Obama wins this one it will be a landslide
- Montana: The demoralized GOP base might stay home and let Obama take these 3 EVs
- Nevada: The presidential race and two House seats are definitely in play here
- New Hampshire: The Democrats will probably win all the marbles here (again)
- New Mexico: The Democrats are likely to win presidential, Senate, and all three House races
- New York: Democrats might pick up four House seats and control of the state senate
- North Carolina: very close races for President, Senate, NC-08, and governor
- North Dakota: the psychological loss of North Dakota would be worse than the electoral loss
- Ohio: Obama and McCain are close; there are key House races in OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, and OH-16
- Oregon: Obama will crush McCain here and that might be enough to drag Jeff Merkley into the Senate
- Pennsylvania: probably not in play, but PA-11 and PA-12 might be close
- Virginia: Polls close at 7 P.M. EST here. If Obama wins, the show's over
- Wyoming: Believe it or not, the Democrats might win Cheney's old House seat

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Early Voting updates

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don't have any.
--Alice Walker
GET OUT THERE AND VOTE!!!!

Early voting has been amazing. You can see some numbers at the George Mason University early voting tracker, but 1.48 million people have voted already in Colorado--nearly 70% of the total number of people who voted in 2004's election in Colorado. 3.75 million have already voted in Florida, 2 million in Georgia (which is 60% of the total number that voted in the 2004 election in Georgia). FANTASTIC. Early voting extends to Nov 3 in many states:


California updates:

Proposition 8 (Ban on Gay Marriage) is losing ground according to new polls (50% no - 47% yes according to Survey USA) , but let's not be complacent. Get out there and vote like your rights depend on it, because they do.

Proposition 4 (Parental consent required for minors seeking an abortion) is also losing ground (46% no- 40% yes) but again, no reason to get complacent -- vote NO.

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Friday, October 31, 2008

Obamapallooza continues

The Obamapallooza continues well into the week. All the buzz is about Obama, and McCain? Well, he might as well go back to chasing applesauce jars in a grocery store for all the interest there is in hearing him speak. Just as a little needle, Obama has actually bought ad time in Arizona. Hey, the race is close there... why not....?

Obama talks about the way to bi-partisanship with Rachel Maddows. "What I'm interested in, is how do we build a working majority for change? And if I start off with the premise that it's only self-identified Democrats who I'm speaking to, then I'm not going to get to where we need to go. If I can describe it as not a blanket indictment of the Republican Party, but instead describe it as the Republican Party having been kidnapped by a incompetent, highly ideological subset of the Republican Party, then that means I can still reach out to a whole bunch of Republican moderates who I think are hungry for change, as well." Could it really be that we'll have the first president who says he'll be bipartisan and then ACTUALLY DOES IT? Video of Obama on Rachel Maddows show.

33 million people watched Obama's infomercial on Thursday. Plus, Obama's appearance on the Daily Show on Thursday night gave Jon Stewart his highest ratings ever. "The 11 p.m. episode, which featured an appearance by presidential candidate Barack Obama, averaged 3.6 million total viewers, beating by 600,000 viewers the previous record set October 8 when his wife Michelle Obama appeared on the show." Call it the "Obama Bump."

And just this afternoon, Obama's interview with Wolf Blitzer aired on CNN. "Obama was asked to name his top priority from a list of issues, including taxes, health care, education, energy policy and immigration.

"[The] top priority may not be any of those five. It may be continuing to stabilize the financial system. We don't know yet what's going to happen in January," he said. "None of this can be accomplished if we continue to see a potential meltdown in the banking system and financial system. So that's priority No. 1: making sure the plumbing works."

Obama said priority No. 2 is energy independence: "We have to seize this moment, because it's not just an energy independence issue; it's also a national security issue, and it's a jobs issue. We can create 5 million new green energy jobs."

Priority No. 3: Health care reform.

Priority No. 4: "Making sure we have tax cuts for the middle class as part of a broader tax reform effort."

Priority No. 5: Reforming the education system.

Apparently Obama has picked up more Reagan support, as Ken Duberstein, Reagan's former Chief of Staff announced today on Fareed Zakaria's show, that he'll be pulling the lever for Obama this year. "Well let's put it this way - I think Colin Powell's decision is in fact the good housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama."

And in an NPR interview, former Sec. of State Lawrence Eagleburger, whom McCain has touted for his endorsement of the Republican, admitted that Palin is not ready for the presidency: "Asked by the host whether Palin could step in during a time of crisis, Eagleburger reverted to sarcasm before leveling the harsh blow. 'It is a very good question,' he said, pausing a few seconds, then adding with a chuckle: 'I'm being facetious here. Look, of course not...Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be, she will be [pause] adequate. I can't say that she would be a genius in the job. But I think she would be enough to get us through a four year... well I hope not... get us through whatever period of time was necessary. And I devoutly hope that it would never be tested.'" Let me help you out, Larry, I can say, SHE WOULDN'T BE A GENIUS AT ANYTHING. Of course, as soon as the words were out of his mouth he thought...ooops. And in an interview on Fox today, he tried to backtrack. "'I made a serious mistake yesterday. I was quoted correctly,' Eagleburger said. 'I wasn't thinking when i said it -- in fact, I was discussing foreign policy, and this was in that context, and I was just plain stupid, and if I had given the flim-flam artist Barack Obama some success with this I am deeply apologetic.'" Yeah, that's what we call a "Freudian slip."



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Voters Un-purged-- De-purged?-- Under-purged?

It's a start: "Tens of thousands of Coloradans who had been removed from the state's voter rolls will be allowed to vote in next week's election and given extra protections so their ballots are counted, under an agreement reached late Wednesday in federal court here. The voters' names had been removed by Mike Coffman, the Colorado secretary of state, who said he did so because the voters had moved out of state or were listed more than once on the rolls. But Mr. Coffman was sued by a coalition of voting rights and other groups who said such purges were generally prohibited by federal law within 90 days of an election. Under the agreement, voters removed from the rolls will be permitted to cast provisional ballots, and those ballots will be counted unless election officials can prove the voters were not eligible. To strike such ballots, county election officials must conduct an extensive records review on each one, a decision that must then be reviewed by Mr. Coffman's office."

And in Michigan, purged voter names are being returned to the rolls: "On Oct. 30, election officials in Michigan began returning approximately 5,500 names to their voter rolls. The voters' names were removed because their voter ID cards had been undeliverable since Jan 1., 2006, according to The Detroit News. A U.S. District Court judge originally ordered the official to reinstate the names on Oct. 13, saying that purging them had violated the National Voting Rights Act. Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land appealed the decision, however, arguing that putting the names back would be a burden and that they had been removed legally."

From back ages ago (i.e. September), read the Brennan Center for Justice's really throroughly frightening report on Voter Purges."While the lack of transparency in purge practices precludes a precise figure of the number of those erroneously purged, we do know that purges have been conducted improperly before. In 2004, for example, Florida planned to remove 48,000 "suspected felons" from its voter rolls. Many of those identified were in fact eligible to vote. The flawed process generated a list of 22,000 African Americans to be purged, but only 61 voters with Hispanic surnames, notwithstanding Florida's sizable Hispanic population. Under pressure from voting rights groups, Florida ordered officials to stop using the purge list. Although this purge was uncovered and mostly stopped before it was completed, other improper purges may go undetected and unremedied."

Also don't forget if you're in Florida, that Obama has his ground team ready, if there is ANY problem at the polls. Just flag down a volunteer: "A team of 5,000 volunteer lawyers representing the Democrats will fan out across polling stations in Florida next Tuesday to ensure that the Republicans do not 'steal' the election as - Democrats claim - George Bush did eight years ago. Heading the biggest team of lawyers ever assembled is Charles Lichtman, a partner in the Fort Lauderdale law firm Berger Singerman, who has been working as an unpaid volunteer for up to 18 hours a day since August. His drive comes from the experience of being what he describes as 'the Hanging Chad Guy', heading up a team of lawyers based in infamous Broward county for weeks during the 2000 recount."

In happier news though, Obama's lead has widened on the Gallup poll, helping to raise Obama's RCP polling spread to 6.4 (at 1:30 pm...)

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ELECTION NIGHT TOOLBOX:

Here are some resources I'll be using on Tuesday. If you know of other great sites and resources, please feel free to send them along to me!!


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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Obamapallooza Edition

At long last! The Obama infomercial. Personally, I liked it, but then, I'm in the tank, as they say. (And can I just say that I called it yesterday-- several clips taken right from the DNC introduction video showed up in last night's piece.) But love it or not, the truth is, there is no such thing as bad publicity. Five days before the election, Obama is the candidate with all the buzz and the preliminary Nielsen numbers for last night were high. Truth be told, even as I watched it, I was worried --that's what I do, and I do it well-- I thought perhaps the infomercial would be viewed as indulgent. Silly me. In keeping with his "Closing Argument" speech, the infomercial focused less on attacking McCain than looking at the case for why Americans need change, but what it really put over is the idea that this is the candidate who understands the complexities of what it's like to live in America right now. Not a scary Muslim terrorist--just a guy with a lot of good ideas.

Over at the Nation, John Nichols had this to say: "It was, as well, a statement. And Barack Obama's determination to make it the closing message of this long campaign will go a long way toward reassuring uncertain voters about the president he intends to be. Most commercials aren't worth the thirty seconds it takes to watch them. Obama's commercial is a thirty minute slice of an American story that was crying out to be told... and that Barack Obama heard."

From Tom Shales at WaPo: "As political filmmaking, 'Barack Obama: American Stories' was an elegant combination of pictures, sounds, voices and music designed not so much to sell America on Barack Obama as to communicate a sensibility. The film conveyed feelings, not facts -- specifically, a simulation of how it would feel to live in an America with Barack Obama in the White House. The tone and texture recalled the "morning in America" campaign film made on behalf of Ronald Reagan, a work designed to give the audience a sense of security and satisfaction; things are going to be all right...Although McCain was not seen during the half-hour, one could easily summon the contrasting image of the Republican while watching Obama. McCain has come across on television as relatively worried, whiny, fusty and falsely folksy. He brought bad news; he has come to epitomize and personify it. Obama brings you medication along with the list of symptoms; he has developed a great bedside, as well as fireside, manner."

Here's the other subtle subtext I took away from the infomercial. Organization gives you smooth operation. The half hour taped segment went so seamlessly into a live rally with Obama and Biden addressing the crowd and the nation from Florida that even Joe Biden was impressed by the magic of TV. Look at who's the organized one, America. If that had been the McCain campaign's half hour, there probably would have been a satellite fizzle, about ten seconds of black screen and an awkward cut back to a confused candidate saying, "Are we back, are we live now?"

Witness today's rally in which McCain gave a shout-out to Joe the Plumber (who's been campaigning with him) and um... was met with silence... No Joe. Ooops. Not only that, but to add insult to injury, apparently, MSNBC's First Read reported, the crowd was a little thin and so the campaign had to bus in an entire school district's worth of kids. Doh!

Anyhoo, Barack had a busy day yesterday, making a very funny and engaging appearance on Jon Stewart's Daily Show looking relaxed and really, frankly, a lot less stressed than I feel.

The big story though, will no doubt be Obama's "Colbert Bump." Yes, bowing to the waves of ObamaCons surging to the Democrat, Stephen Colbert last night endorsed Barack Obama. Look for at least a point and a half rise in his numbers as a result.

Obama capped it all off with an appearance with Bill Clinton at a rally in Florida. More on that below.

Also, although Obama's infomercial didn't run on ABC, Obama did an interview with Charlie Gibson and talked about the posibility of a bi-partisan cabinet in an Obama administration. "On a whole host of these issues, I think we need Republicans, not just as show pieces. In some cases, Republicans have good ideas. And, you know, I've always been more than happy to steal good ideas from whatever the source."

Out of the Mouths of Babes

<== Obama, offering his water to a rally attendee who had passed out. I'm still marvelling at his ability to make us all feel calmer. It's a strange power. No matter what happens, whether it's the entire financial system melting down in a colossal mess, or the microphone cutting out, or an audience member fainting, he always seems to know just what to do. Maybe he's an alien. Thanks to Dina for these links, which hilariously point out the differences between the way kids react to McCain versus Obama.

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