Survey Reveals Broad Support for President - NYTimes.com

President Obama is benefiting from remarkably high levels of optimism and confidence among Americans about his leadership, providing him with substantial political clout as he confronts the nation’s economic challenges and opposition from nearly all Republicans in Congress, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

A majority of people surveyed in both parties said Mr. Obama was striving to work in a bipartisan way, but most faulted Republicans for their response to the president, saying the party had objected to the $787 billion economic stimulus plan for political reasons. Most said Mr. Obama should pursue the priorities he campaigned on, the poll found, rather than seek middle ground with Republicans.

Read more on the NYTimes.com.

CONTINUE READING...

Obama's poll numbers still high-- take that Rush Limbaugh

"With Barack Obama’s victory in passing a massive stimulus package marred by days of bad press—as not a single House Republican backed the bill, his Health Czar went down in flames and his second pick for Commerce Secretary walked away—the administration has been cut down to size, and lost some of its bipartisan sheen.

Such, at least, has been the beltway chatter, but so far the numbers don’t back it up.

Obama’s approval rating remains well above 60% in tracking polls. A range of state pollsters said they’d seen no diminution in the president’s sky-high approval ratings, and no improvement in congressional Republicans’ dismal numbers.

And that’s before the stimulus creates billions of dollars in spending on popular programs, which could, at least temporarily, further boot Obama’s popularity.

“It’s eerie—I read the news from the Beltway, and there’s this disconnect with the polls from the Midwest that I see all around me,” said Ann Seltzer, the authoritative Iowa pollster who works throughout the Midwest."

Read more on Politico.com.

CONTINUE READING...

Nate Silver gets his due

Nate's FiveThirtyEight.com is just about my favorite polling site, perhaps because I loved to watch Obama's percentages keep going up.

It's good to see him getting his due from the NY Times--now I'll have to follow his baseball predictions too!

At 9:46 p.m., blogging on his site FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver called the presidential election for Barack Obama. The television networks followed suit about an hour and 15 minutes later after most polls in Western states closed.

Of course, Mr. Silver had a head start: he had forecast that Senator Obama would beat Senator John McCain back in March.

In an election season of unlikely outcomes, Mr. Silver, 30, is perhaps the most unlikely media star to emerge. A baseball statistician who began analyzing political polls only last year, he introduced his site, FiveThirtyEight.com, in March, where he used his own formula to predict federal and state results and run Election Day possibilities based on a host of factors.

Other sites combine polls, notably RealClearPolitics and Pollster, but FiveThirtyEight, which drew almost five million page views on Election Day, has become one of the breakout online stars of the year. Mr. Silver recognized that people wanted to play politics like they played fantasy baseball, and pick apart poll numbers for themselves instead of waiting for an evening news anchor to interpret polls for them.

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Fretting--It's What We Do...

Speaking of all of us, who "own" the campaign..."Pre-election rituals are much the same, from Oberlin, Ohio, to San Francisco. Many liberals describe waking up in the predawn, padding to the kitchen, firing up the coffeemaker and logging on before the children wake up. Lisa Serizawa, 44, of San Francisco leaps from site to site, from national newspapers to one in Ohio to another in Pennsylvania, then a blur of CNN, polling sites, and whatever." Oh what will we do on Wednesday? I plan to don my "Obama '08" T-shirt once again and celebrate. For at least a week.

To talk with left-leaning Democrats in New Hope, San Francisco or Miami Beach, to drill deep into their id, is to stand at the intersection of Liberal and High Anxiety.

Right now, more than a few are having a these-polls-are-too-good-to-be-true, we-still-could-lose-this-election moment. Their consuming and possibly over-caffeinated worry is that their prayers and nightly phone calls to undecided voters in Toledo, Ohio, notwithstanding, Mr. Obama might fall short on Election Day.

...

Recently he sat down with a friend who was sweating about Minnesota.

"Minnesota?" Mr. Schrader told his friend. "What, are you kidding me? Obama's up 14 points there."

The friend shook his head sadly. Take off seven points for hidden racial animus. Subtract another five for polling error. It is down to two points, and that is within the margin of error in sampling, and that could mean Mr. Obama might be behind.

CONTINUE READING...

What are we looking for?

We're all polling experts now. We know about Zogby's oversampling of Republicans, we know which poll aggregators we trust, and at what time Gallup releases its latest tracking poll (expanded tracking poll, thank you very much). Now what does all of this mean????

Fortunately, smarter brains than mine are able to parse out the thousands of election scenarios and boil things down to a few key points. I speak, naturally, of Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, who says:

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.

CONTINUE READING...

Voters Un-purged-- De-purged?-- Under-purged?

It's a start: "Tens of thousands of Coloradans who had been removed from the state's voter rolls will be allowed to vote in next week's election and given extra protections so their ballots are counted, under an agreement reached late Wednesday in federal court here. The voters' names had been removed by Mike Coffman, the Colorado secretary of state, who said he did so because the voters had moved out of state or were listed more than once on the rolls. But Mr. Coffman was sued by a coalition of voting rights and other groups who said such purges were generally prohibited by federal law within 90 days of an election. Under the agreement, voters removed from the rolls will be permitted to cast provisional ballots, and those ballots will be counted unless election officials can prove the voters were not eligible. To strike such ballots, county election officials must conduct an extensive records review on each one, a decision that must then be reviewed by Mr. Coffman's office."

And in Michigan, purged voter names are being returned to the rolls: "On Oct. 30, election officials in Michigan began returning approximately 5,500 names to their voter rolls. The voters' names were removed because their voter ID cards had been undeliverable since Jan 1., 2006, according to The Detroit News. A U.S. District Court judge originally ordered the official to reinstate the names on Oct. 13, saying that purging them had violated the National Voting Rights Act. Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land appealed the decision, however, arguing that putting the names back would be a burden and that they had been removed legally."

From back ages ago (i.e. September), read the Brennan Center for Justice's really throroughly frightening report on Voter Purges."While the lack of transparency in purge practices precludes a precise figure of the number of those erroneously purged, we do know that purges have been conducted improperly before. In 2004, for example, Florida planned to remove 48,000 "suspected felons" from its voter rolls. Many of those identified were in fact eligible to vote. The flawed process generated a list of 22,000 African Americans to be purged, but only 61 voters with Hispanic surnames, notwithstanding Florida's sizable Hispanic population. Under pressure from voting rights groups, Florida ordered officials to stop using the purge list. Although this purge was uncovered and mostly stopped before it was completed, other improper purges may go undetected and unremedied."

Also don't forget if you're in Florida, that Obama has his ground team ready, if there is ANY problem at the polls. Just flag down a volunteer: "A team of 5,000 volunteer lawyers representing the Democrats will fan out across polling stations in Florida next Tuesday to ensure that the Republicans do not 'steal' the election as - Democrats claim - George Bush did eight years ago. Heading the biggest team of lawyers ever assembled is Charles Lichtman, a partner in the Fort Lauderdale law firm Berger Singerman, who has been working as an unpaid volunteer for up to 18 hours a day since August. His drive comes from the experience of being what he describes as 'the Hanging Chad Guy', heading up a team of lawyers based in infamous Broward county for weeks during the 2000 recount."

In happier news though, Obama's lead has widened on the Gallup poll, helping to raise Obama's RCP polling spread to 6.4 (at 1:30 pm...)

CONTINUE READING...

POLLING: Oct. 30

It's like about a billion polls a day, now that we're less than a week out. You can click on Real Clear Politics ten times and hour and get new results every time. What has happened to my day??

I'm calling this polling profile the "Jaws of Life":

As Wyatt Cenac said so eloquently on the Daily Show-- "Let's just F***ING VOTE ALREADY!"

<== Drive-Thru Early Voting voting in Colorado. GMU is tracking early voting stats here if you need a break from polls...According to their stats, over 17 million early votes have already been cast.

And a Columbus, Ohio pet shelter came up with a "Kitty Caucus" to draw attention to pet in need of adoption. Watch "Who Pooped in the Ballot Box?" on CNN's iReport.

So you might well ask, at what time on Tuesday will I start to get on with my life? When will I top hyperventilating and begin to breathe normally again? When results for Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida start to come in. Here are the poll closing times, conveniently given in all time zones.

And if you're playing along at home, (you know you are) you can keep track on the CNN map.

======================

Media Watch:

NBC anchor Brian Williams will interview Obama on "Nightly News" at 6:30 pm ET.

MSNBC will air Rachel Maddow's interview with Obama on "The Rachel Maddow Show" at 9 pm ET.

ABC News' Charlie Gibson will interview John McCain in Ohio Friday. The interview with air on "World News" at 6:30 pm ET.

-----------------------------

5 DAYS to the election! We can count the number of days left on one hand!

Expect the lines to be long on election day. Seriously. I'd take the day off. Eric's aunt is an election judge in Missouri and says she's expecting to put in a 19-20 hour day. If early voting is anything to judge by, the turnout on both sides will be massive and I have to say, it's exciting. But there's a danger though, as the LA Times points out. "The flood of millions of first-time voters could lead to crowded and contentious polling places across the country, triggering last-minute identity checks that could deny ballots to those whose names or addresses don't match other government records."

CONTINUE READING...

Getting Out to Vote

FLORIDA, CONGRATULATIONS!! Due to historic turnout, your early voting hours have been extended to 12 hours a day during the week! Keep voting!! "Current Florida law allows for early voting to be conducted eight hours a day each weekday and for a total of eight hours during the weekends. With Governor Crist's order, early voting sites will be open the rest of this week from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. They will be open a total of 12 hours on Saturday and Sunday, the last day of early voting. 'It's not a political decision,' Mr. Crist said moments after signing the order, which declares a state of emergency in Florida. 'It's a people decision.'"

OHIO, CONGRATULATIONS!! "A federal judge in Ohio has ruled that counties must allow homeless voters to list park benches and other locations that aren't buildings as their addresses. U.S. District Judge Edmund Sargus also ruled that provisional ballots can't be invalidated because of poll worker errors. Monday's ruling resolved the final two pieces of a settlement between the Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner." Honey, in this financial atmosphere, you'd better not disenfranchise the homeless voters, 'cause that could be any of us listing a streetside grate as "home" if the economy keeps tanking...

NEVADA: EXCELLENT PLANNING! You have voting stations set up in outlet malls, grocery stores, health clubs, libraries, community centers, anywhere people tend to go in their normal daily business. Make it easy, make it accessible, make it fast. 160,000 people have already turned out in the state's most populous county, Clark County. I LOVE it.

Electoral-Vote also points out this poll from the Weekly Reader. In case you don't remember this from your school days, Weekly Reader is a publication for schoolkids, and they do a poll each presidential election of students from kindergarten to 12th grade. This year, they predict an Obama win --55% to McCain's 43%. The VoteMaster says, "This survey has been surprisingly accurate in the past, getting 12 of the past 13 presidential elections right, missing only Bill Clinton's win in a 3-way race in 1992. The survey's accuracy may be due to children getting most of their political views from their parents and the children's views may more accurately reflect what their parents are really thinking than what the parents are telling the pollsters."

No one get complacent though! As this YouTube video warns us...it ain't over til it's over.

HuffPo note that the voters are running away with the election. (that's a bit of humor, folks)
Seriously though, some highlights:

COLORADO: Early voting is currently at over 75% of 2004 levels with one week to go.

TEXAS: "Across Dallas County and into the outer suburbs, thousands of people continue to stream into polling places, dwarfing early-voting records and raising questions about what the preliminary tallies mean for candidates and political parties."

FLORIDA: Early voters already make up 27% of total 2004 numbers (in 2004, early voters constituted 36% of total votes). Dems outnumber Republicans so far, 44.7% to 40%.

GEORGIA: Early voting is already 33% higher than 2004 numbers, and is equivalent to 31% of all votes cast in Georgia in 2004. Of early voters, 35% are African-American, compared to 25% of the total voting population in 2004.Also, nearly 56% of early voters are women, another excellent sign for Democrats.

OHIO: "Among those in Ohio who told WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA that they have already voted, Barack Obama leads by 13 points."

ILLINOIS: 60,000 votes have already been cast in the Tenth Congressional District. Of those, 58% were cast by registered Democrats, compared to 25% for Republicans.

IOWA: Registered Democrats have a 20-point advantage in early voting over Republicans in Iowa.

LOUISIANA: Early voting is near double 2004 levels. Of early voters, registered Democrats have a huge edge, 57.9% to 29.4%. 34% of early voters are African-American.

NEVADA: Democrats lead 54.4% to 29.1% among early voters. Early voters constituted 59.4% of all voters in 2004; this year, early voting to this point is equivalent to 44% of all 2004 numbers.

NORTH CAROLINA: The proportion of black voters among all early voters has leveled off - they constitute 28% of all voters now - but still exceeds black registration in the state.

TENNESSEE: As of Monday, 1.1 million voters had turned out to vote early, according to state election coordinators. Early voting closes tomorrow in Tennessee.

CONTINUE READING...

POLL WATCHING: I know you are, but what am I?

Has this election sucked away your life? You are not alone. Believe me, you're not alone. At the Wall Street Journal Ellen Gamerman consider the national pastime of poll-watching.... "The proliferation of sites such as Pollster.com, RealClearPolitics.com and FiveThirtyEight.com are feeding the poll-watchers' habits -- offering up-to-the-minute information on the race by compiling dozens of polls, posting electoral-vote maps and inviting readers to comment. At least 10 new national polls and 15 to 30 new state polls are released every day, says Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com. RealClearPolitics.com received seven million unique users last month, thanks in part to polls moving 'out of the political-junkie circle and into the public consciousness,' says John McIntyre, the site's president and co-founder. Greg Sargent, who edits the election blog at the political site TalkingPointsMemo.com, says citizen poll-watchers are becoming increasingly sophisticated. The site recently received more than three-dozen emails from readers who thought it had included a wrong number from Gallup in its weighted average of five daily tracking polls. In fact, the site had switched to a number based on likely voters, not registered voters -- changing the composite poll by 0.1%. 'It was an interesting moment,' Mr. Sargent says."

Obviously to go by this article, I'm not wasting ENOUGH time on these things. I need to spend MUCH more time on the polling websites. By the way, did you know that on Pollster.com's graphs, you can play with the "tools" on each graph? Take Florida for instance. Don't like these automated "voice recording" polls in which pollees never talk to a live person? Click on the "Tools" link at the bottom of the graph and then click "Filter." You can uncheck the "IVR automated phone" box and *Poof*! all the auto-polls are taken out. Much better. You can even click off specific polls that you don't like. Like Fox. Or Zogby.

Republicans are sobbing into their beers. Former Bush-speechwriter David Frum says glumly: "I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly . . . it's too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP. McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. 'There is not a safe Republican seat in the country,' he warned. 'I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them.'"

And is it really possible that McCain might lose LOSE Arizona? Electoral-vote.com shows McCain only leading Obama by TWO points in his home state. HuffPo has a look at the lackadaisical ground game McCain has been playing in his own backyard."On the first visit to the McCain campaign's Arizona headquarters, the office was nearly empty. Three people worked quietly at desks. On the next visit, the office again had only a few people but was filled with a surplus of unused yard signs. The contrast is striking. The McCain campaign office is devoid of people, but its walls are lined with stacks of unsold yard signs. Meanwhile, the Obama office is filled with volunteers, but signs fly out of the door almost as fast as they arrive."

On our side, Dems--quite thoroughly unused to being in this position--feel like we also should be sobbing into a beer, because isn't that what we always do at this point in a presidential election? Andrew Sullivan, ina comment for the London Times, says "To put it bluntly: they simply cannot believe the polls right now. The numbers are too good for a Democrat running for the presidency from scratch. They just don't feel right. A clear lead for a nonincumbent black guy from Chicago against a war hero and a Barbie doll? Shurely shome mishtake. But in fact there is no obvious mishtake."

Even Evil Undead Karl Rove has his own website dontcha you know, and on it is an electoral vote tracker. And um...well... he's showing 306 electoral vote for Obama right now.... I can keep from barfing long enough to enjoy the moment.... Rove recently told the London Times that if "Obama wins the presidential election, it will be because he has beaten the Republicans at their own game... The Democrats have copied Rove's formidable tactics and ground operation, pumping out a disciplined message, assembling a broad-based coalition that includes young first-time voters and African-Americans and drowning their Republican opponents with money... Rove recalled how Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, outlined their electoral strategy at the Democratic convention in August: 'He explicitly said we have deliberately copied the army of persuasion of the Republicans.'" Yeah, don't break your arm patting yourself on the back, Karl.

And I've found another map to obsess about in the Congressional Quarterly. They also have a good one of the House Races.

And more pretty graphs with yet another way of looking at the Road map to 270 for McCain. It doesn't look easy....Also a comparison to the 2000 and 2004 races. Looks MUCH more promising for Obama.

As always I like to wind up on FiveThirtyEight.com, where I can look at Obama's "win percentage" which right now is at 96.7%. Just a reminder, that means that at fivethirtyeight, McCain wins in only 3.3% of the election outcome scenarios that they can envision.

Iphone apps?

If I were really really obsessive, I'd have stolen Eric's iPhone and be following poll results there on the urban Daddy or Info Chimps apps. Well, I would but we couldn't get them to download. I'm working on it...

In the meantime, there's also an Election twitter page, which includes tweets from both campaigns and I hope will have some updates on election night. I want instant results!

CONTINUE READING...

Latest endorsements

In another one of those gosh-durned funny twists of fate, Scott McClellan, former Mouth of Sauron-- I mean Bush press secretary--endorsed Obama at a taping of D.L. Hughley's new show for CNN. Ooooh, Scott, there's something growing out of your neck... oh wait. I think it's a backbone.

And holy moley, Ron Howard has gotten the Opie wig back on and had a reunion with Andy Griffith and Henry Winkler in this latest ad from Funny or Die.

Obama also picked up the NY Times endorsement, unsurprising because of course that Liberal-bias rag has been in the tank for Obama since the start. Hah.

It will be an enormous challenge just to get the nation back to where it was before Mr. Bush, to begin to mend its image in the world and to restore its self-confidence and its self-respect. Doing all of that, and leading America forward, will require strength of will, character and intellect, sober judgment and a cool, steady hand. Mr. Obama has those qualities in abundance.

Watching him being tested in the campaign has long since erased the reservations that led us to endorse Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries. He has drawn in legions of new voters with powerful messages of hope and possibility and calls for shared sacrifice and social responsibility.

Mr. McCain, whom we chose as the best Republican nominee in the primaries, has spent the last coins of his reputation for principle and sound judgment to placate the limitless demands and narrow vision of the far-right wing. His righteous fury at being driven out of the 2000 primaries on a racist tide aimed at his adopted daughter has been replaced by a zealous embrace of those same win-at-all-costs tactics and tacticians. He surrendered his standing as an independent thinker in his rush to embrace Mr. Bush's misbegotten tax policies and to abandon his leadership position on climate change and immigration reform.

Gallup has gone the extra mile and gotten polling from the rest of the world as to who they would vote for. Not that you couldn't guess, but it's interesting to see what a vote of confidence McCain doesn't get. Of the top ten countries that are most pro-McCain, four of them are not for McCain--but nevertheless, they still qualify as the most "pro" that he's got. Obama, unsurprisingly finds his biggest supporters among African and European countries. It's the companion piece to the similar poll from earlier in the year. Interesting how BLUE everything looks.

Painful. Really painful... Nancy Pfotenhauer, new Mouth of Sauron, is back, this time trying valiantly to defend...er... justify...er... cover up... Sarah Palin's (mis)understanding of the constitutional role of the Vice President, to wit, that "A Vice President has a great job because not only are they there to support the President's agenda, they are like the team member, the teammate to that President. They are in charge of the senate. if they want to, they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better." Yeah, get in there and be all senator-ey and as to agenda-advancing and good. With smile firmly affixed to her teeth, Nancy has a go, and Chris Matthews, to his credit does NOT let it go.

CONTINUE READING...

Poll Position

Every day bring fabulous new poll news... I'm not gonna jinx anything, but check out the RCP map. I'll remind you once again that RCP is one of the more conservative poll aggregators, and yet even they are showing Obama with 306 electoral votes, not even including toss ups.

And who is in the tossup pile?? Montana? North Dakota? Indiana?

Now go look at Electoral-Vote.com. Go ahead. I'll wait.

...

Yep. 375 Electoral votes.

Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver currently has Obama winning in 96% of the scenarios. "This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year."

Yesterday's Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois. Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

Date with Destiny

11 days to the election! Oh, Lordy...

Look for late-breaking updates this weekend on Troopergate as Palin and her husband are deposed tomorrow by the special investigator working on the case. Exquisite timing.

Will Ferrell will guest star as President Bush along with Tina Fey on Saturday Night Live this weekend-- but you can watch it ahead of time online.

Don't forget, Meet the Press' guest this Sunday morning, will be John McCain.

Next week, October 29, at 8 pm, Barack Obama will take his half hour of prime address-the-nation time. Woo-hoo!!

And do you have someone on your list who is thinking about voting for Obama, but apathetic, maybe just too darn lazy to get up and vote? Eric has found a fabulous little video service from MoveOn.org that cleverly integrates the recipient's name right into the video. Here's one he made for me. Like I wouldn't vote. Hah!

CONTINUE READING...

By contrast...

In all fairness, news organizations scoured the DNC records and, what do you know, they couldn't turn up any reimburements even remotely similar to Palin's clothing spree for the Obama-Biden tickets. Seems like Barack and Joe and Michelle and Jill, they um... BUY THEIR OWN CLOTHES! The best response the Republicans could come up with is that it's a scandal, a scandal, I tell you, that Barack Obama is using a campaign plane to fly back to Hawaii to see his seriously ill grandmother. Why isn't he swimming to see her -- THAT wouldn't cost any campaign dollars and it's not a lot to ask if he really loves her.

HuffPo reminds us that, "In early July the Obama family sat down for an interview with Maria Menounos of Access Hollywood. One of the topics discussed was Barack's status as a style icon, which amused his wife and daughters because, as Michelle points out in the interview, his belt and shoes need replacing, and his pants are 10 years old ('I hate to shop,' he explains). Michelle also reveals that the sundress she's wearing is from the Gap: 'Fortunately now they make really pretty stuff at all price ranges... [Barack] will be happy to know that this is, like, a $30 dress.' Her husband then high-fives her, and daughter Sasha announces 'Mommy buys everything from Gap!'"

Obama's suit, appropriate for a wide variety of situations, is a navy blue, worsted-wool, two-button suit tailored by Chicago's Hartmarx and costing about $1,500. Obama jokes that he had them just make him three in dark blue and three in grey, because he hates to spend time shopping.

Obama and his campaign have proven time and again that they are a responsible bunch, I have to say. In Chicago plans are afoot for a giant rally in Grant Park on election night, but that city is hobbled by a multi million dollar deficit and massive budget problems. Knowing how much such a rally is likely to cost the city, the Obama campaign has offered to pay for everything, from extra police, city workers and setup to the cleanup costs afterwards."'They have assured us that they're willing to pay,' said Chicago Office of Emergency Management and Communications spokeswoman Jennifer Martinez, adding that the city had yet to hit the total button. 'We're still outlining what some of these things will entail.' The U.S. Secret Service--and ultimately federal taxpayers--pays for nearly all the security around Obama. The city and state are likely to bill the campaign for things like street closures, crowd control outside a secure area in Grant Park, help with motorcades and overtime for public safety workers."

Joe Klein, who now can't get a seat on the McCain plane, figures he might as well go for the gusto, and comes out with a big piece in Time Magazine, "Why Barack is Winning":

I asked Obama about gut decisions, in an interview on his plane 17 days before the election. It was late on a Saturday night, and he looked pretty tired, riddled with gray hair and not nearly as young as when I'd first met him four years earlier. He had drawn 175,000 people to two events in Missouri that day, larger crowds than I'd ever seen at a campaign event, and he would be endorsed by Colin Powell the next morning. He seemed as relaxed as ever, though, unfazed by the hoopla or the imminence of the election. Our conversation was informal but intense. He seemed to be thinking in my presence, rather than just reciting talking points, and it took him some time to think through my question about gut decisions. He said the first really big one was how to react when incendiary videos of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's black-nationalist sermons surfaced last spring. "The decision to make it big as opposed to make it small," Obama said of the landmark speech on race relations he delivered in Philadelphia. "My gut was telling me that this was a teachable moment and that if I tried to do the usual political damage control instead of talking to the American people like ... they were adults and could understand the complexities of race, I would be not only doing damage to the campaign but missing an important opportunity for leadership."

Like adults... imagine. A candidate who want to talk to us like we have more than a sixth grade education.

Nicholas Kristof, in an editorial in today's Times, points out the weirdly uncomfortable and yet comforting truth about what an Obama presidency might mean, as a message to the world. "Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, which conducted the BBC poll, said that at a recent international conference he attended in Malaysia, many Muslims voiced astonishment at Mr. Obama's rise because it was so much at odds with their assumptions about the United States. Remember that the one thing countless millions of people around the world 'know' about the United States is that it is controlled by a cabal of white bankers and Jews who use police with fire hoses to repress blacks. To them, Mr. Obama's rise triggers severe cognitive dissonance. 'It's an anomaly, so contrary to their expectation that it makes them receptive to a new paradigm for the U.S.,' Mr. Kull said."

Oh, it triggers a severe cognitive dissonance in Americans too, but I think in a good way. I hope in a good way.

=============
Inter-Media-ate

The Daily Show, as usual, had a great segment, this time, on Sarah Palin's wardrobe. But even better was the Who the F@#k is that guy segment. How do they do it? Is some poor Daily Show intern tied to a tv set 24 hours a day?

For those of us who are Poll-Fretters (and you know who you are) the recent AP poll showing McCain only 1 point away from Obama nationally is cause for a little more than minor consternation. But fear not, our intrepid poll analysts have the answer: "The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible."

====================

12 days to the election! We are now only TWO WEEKS from the Election!

Set your Tivo, Meet the Press' guest this Sunday morning, will John McCain.

Undecideds, whoever the heck you are, in case you missed our earlier comparison of the candidates positions on a wide range of issues, the Congressional Quarterly has also compiled a side-by-side look at McCain and Obama's stances.

CONTINUE READING...

Polling Update: Oct 22

For all of us worriers out there-- yes, I know this means me-- who STILL fret endlessly that Obama will somehow get edged out of this election, Charlie Cook at the National Journal has some calming things to note:

• 

  First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win.
• Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain's candidacy.
• Third, considering that 89 percent of all voters who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John Kerry four years ago and 93 percent of Republicans cast their ballots for George W. Bush, the switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would seem to almost seal this outcome irrespective of the candidates fielded on each side.
• Fourth, with Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message.
• Fifth, while many are talking about the so-called "Bradley effect," it hasn't been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.
• Finally, Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Let's not forget too, that McCain has hung all his hopes for winning on taking Pennsylvania. But, Johnny Mac...unless you're planning some disastrous "accident" that will only affect Democrats, honey.... Pennsylvania doesn't look good. See how that Obama line is going sharply up and your line is going sharply down?

All this still won't stop me from obsessively checking the polling numbers. LOL

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com conveniently noted yesterday the poll release times in his fascinating assessment of all the polls out there, so now I know when to check his site and RealClearPolitics for updated numbers.

• Zogby/C-SPAN/Reuters: 12:45 AM Eastern Time.
• Research 2000/Daily Kos: Early AM, usually about 7:30 Eastern time.
• Rasmussen Reports: Promptly at 9:30 AM Eastern. Results are sometimes available slightly earlier for subscribers to their Premium service.
• The Diageo Hotline Poll: Midmorning, usually around 10:30 AM Eastern time. Results are often teased on the Hotline Blog before they appear in full.
• Battleground/Tarrance/George Washington U.: Weekdays only -- midmornings around 10:30 AM Eastern time.
• Gallup: At 1 PM Eastern time, or a few minutes thereafter.
• Investors Business' Daily/TIPP: Mid-afternoon, usually about 3 PM Eastern time.
• ABC News/Washington Post: Embargoed until 5 PM Eastern.

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13 days to the election! We are now only TWO WEEKS from the Election!

All over the country the Early Voting juggernaut continues to amaze. The NY Times estimates that one third of all voter may have cast a ballot before Nov 4, and observes that many of those early voters are Democrats.

Andrew Sullivan at Daily Dish has some email "snapshots" detailing long lines and unprecedented turnout from voters around the country.

Floridians, by the way, STAY IN LINE and VOTE! Obama promised yesterday to make sure everyone's votes are counted. As HuffPo reports, he said that there will be "volunteers on hand at every polling location every day in case something goes wrong. Should someone experience difficulty casting their vote they would need only to flag down a person wearing a blue hat and help would be on the way. A toll-free number, 877.2FLOBAMA, will also be available for people to call for help." Man's got a plan. According to Bloomberg, Obama has engaged a massive team to make sure no one is disenfranchised."In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court. `On Election Day, I will be managing the largest law firm in the country, albeit for one day,' said Lichtman, 53, a Fort Lauderdale corporate lawyer and veteran of the five-week recount after the 2000 election when Florida eventually delivered the presidency to George W. Bush."

I think we also have to take a moment to stop and congratulate each other on the record voter registration that took place this year. From Arkansas to New Jersey, from San Mateo to Kalamazoo, it's been crazy--let's just make sure turnout is as high!

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AVOID THE LINES (or join the lines...) and vote early! Your state may offer the option of voting early, if you're willing to go to your local Board of Elections. Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options with links to official websites. Here is the shortlist of states and their early voting windows:

Alaska: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arkansas: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arizona: : Oct 2-31 California: Oct 6-Nov 3 Colorado: Oct 20-31 Georgia: Sept 22-Oct 31 Florida: Oct 20-Nov 2 Hawaii: Oct 21-Nov 1 Idaho: Oct 10-Nov 3 Illinois: Oct 13-30 Indiana: Oct 6-Nov 3 Iowa: Sept 25- Nov 3 Kansas: Oct 15-Nov 3 Louisiana: Oct 21-28 Maine: Oct 5-Nov 3 Montana: Oct 6- Nov 3

Nebraska: Sept 30- Nov 3 Nevada: Oct 18-31 New Mexico: Oct 7-Nov 1 North Carolina: Oct 16-Nov 1 North Dakota: Sept 25-Nov 3 Ohio: Sept 30-Nov 3 Oklahoma: Oct 31-Nov 3 South Dakota: now-Nov 3 Tennessee: Oct 15-30 Texas: Oct 20-31 Utah: Oct 23-Nov 2 Vermont: Oct 6-Nov 3 West Virginia: Oct 15-Nov 1 Wisconsin: now-Nov 3 Wyoming: Sept 25-Nov 3

CONTINUE READING...

Senate Race Roundup

With positive numbers for Obama all over the country, Democrats are hoping the love will help candidates for other offices down the ticket, particularly in Senate races. The Dems have a simple majority in the Senate with 51 senators in their column IF Joe Lieberman votes (as he often does) with them. Should the Dems pick up ten or even nine seats, they would have enough votes to be able to block any potential filibustering. Below are 15 key Senate races with polling numbers from the RealClearPolitics agreggator. (States in blue are potential Dem pickups. States in light blue are possible, but unlikely pickups.)

• 

  Virginia: Highly regarded Republican Senator John Warner decided to retire last year leaving the opening for Democrats, who won the other Senate seat with Jim Webb's populist message. The extremely popular former governor, Democrat Mark Warner, leads here by 27 points over the other former governor, Jim Gilmore.
• New Mexico: Tom Udall, the Democratic running for the open U.S Senate seat in New Mexico, leads here by nearly 18 points, and will probably continue to show strongly especially given the release of a powerful new ad featuring Army Sergeant Erik Schei, who was gravely injured by in Iraq and is now forced to communicate through a speaking aid.
• Alaska: We're all wondering if Ted Stevens, the incumbent Republican Senator, can seriously pull it off while under indictment on 7 felony charges. His opponent Mark Begich leads by 1.6 points.
  
• Colorado: If you're Republican, things are kinda bleak here. Democrat Mark Udall, a contender for a vacant Republican seat, leads his Republican opponent by 9.3 points. The National Republican Senatorial Committee just pulled their money out of the race for the Senate here.
• New Hampshire: Republican incumbent and former GHW Bush chief of staff John Sununu is fighting hard in the Granite State against Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, the first woman elected to that office in NH, who leads by almost 6 points. The conservative and anti-abortion Sununu made a mark co-sponsoring energy and environment legislation and hoped to coast on McCain's coattails, but at the moment Obama leads by 9 points here.
  
• North Carolina: In 2002, Republican incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole (the 72-year old wife of Bob Dole) won handily. But in this year's election against Dem Kay Hagan, Dole has had to fight to gain any ground. Hagan, the niece of Florida Senator Lawton Chiles, is well funded by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and may be benefitting from Obama's recent rise in the polling here. Or maybe vice versa. Hagan leads in every poll by an average of 3 points.
  
• Oregon: Two-term Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is fighting a serious challenge from Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley which has only intensified following Smith's finessing of positions on the $700 billion bailout. Merkley leads here by nearly 4 points, despite Smith's attempts to link himself to Ted Kennedy and Barack Obama.
  
• Minnesota: Incumbent first-term Republican senator Norm Coleman is the formerly Democratic mayor of St. Paul, who left the Dem. Party in 1996 to join the GOP. He's up against Air America radio host Al Franken in one of this year's more high-profile races, and in a three-way race with the addition of Independent Dean Barkley. Franken leads Coleman by a narrow 2 points, which may increase after Sen. Hillary Clinton comes to Minnesota to campaign today.
• Kentucky: Despite some concenrs about blowback from the ousting of a scandal-ridden Republican governor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to be capably defending his seat against the Democratic candidate Bruce Lunsford with a lead of 4 points.
  
• Georgia: The fabulously named Saxby Chambliss, the Republican incumbent who hopes to gain a second term has battled Obama's Democratic registration drive in what the Dems hoped might be a possible pickup state this year. Chambliss leads here by nearly 3 points, against a nearly unknown opponent although that's slim in a race that Chambliss was expected to dominate.
  
• Mississippi: Roger Wicker was the Republican choice to finish out the remaining four years of Trent Lott's Senate term, a seat he's been keeping warm since MS Governor Haley Barbour appointed him to fill it until the November election. In order to do so, though, Wicker had to vacate his House district seat which subsequently went Democratic in a surprise twist in the May special elections. Still, Wicker leads here by 2.7 points, and the Republican National Committee has said that it will continue to put money into supporting his campaign.
  
• Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu was a top target for the GOP this year, but with limited resources and time running out, Landrieu's 13 point lead caused the NRSC to pull its advertising dollars from the Louisiana Senate race.
• Maine: Moderate Republican incumbent Susan Collins will likely win her bid for a third term in her Senate seat, though it breaks her promise to only serve two terms. She leads here by 13 points.
  
• New Jersey: Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg's seat looks safe here, as his lead is well into the double digits with 12 points. The Republicans had hoped to take this seat with a popular moderate Anne Estabrook, but she suffered a minor stroke in March and was replaced by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.
  
• Nebraska: Republican former Governor Mike Johanns leads by a comfortable 14 points in this race to replace retiring Senator Chuck Hagel.
  

By the way, here are a few other non-critical races that the Democrats lead in, just for kicks:

• Joe Biden (Delaware) leads by 37 points
• John Kerry (Massachussetts) by 28 points
• Dick Durbin (Illinois) by 29 points
• Tom Harkin (Iowa) by 18 points
• Carl Levin (Michigan) by 25 points
• Max Baucus (Montana) by 33 points
• Jack Reed (Rhode Island) by 52 points
• Tim Johnson (South Dakota) by 25 points
• Jay Rockefeller (West Virginia) by 28 points.

Republicans are feeling a crunch -- this isn't their year, and frankly if were in charge of this party (STOP LAUGHING, everyone) I'd tell them that they need to forget this year, save some money and start working NOW on a serious reassessment of their own labels and priorities. In case you missed it, a couple of weeks ago, Republican Rep. Tom Davis (who's quitting this year after seven terms serving the Virginia 11th District) was profiled in a fascinating NY Times Magazine piece, which detailed his frustrations with the governance system and with his own party. "The way Davis sees it, the system has become dysfunctional. Bush has so destroyed the party's public standing and Congress has become so infected with a win-at-all-costs mentality that there is no point in staying. 'You know, the Cubs fans used to put the bags over their heads,' he told me when we met for eggs at Mickey's Dining Car in St. Paul the first morning of the Republican National Convention. 'That's what I feel when you say you're from Congress, because there are just so many things we're not doing.'"

Sen. Barack Obama holds leads in four key counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner in four important swing states — Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia — according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey. InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery explained Obama's success in these areas is a result of his strength among independents and voters between the ages of 30 and 44. "That is the most angry group of voters that we have this year, with regard to the Republicans," Towery said. "I see that in almost every poll I look at." Angry? You don't say.

And congratulations COLORADO! McCain is now looking for ways to win the election without winning your state! (Unfortunately, you'll still have to sit though hundreds of his national attack ads and robo-calls, just like the rest of us...)

CONTINUE READING...

Maverick Maneuvers

So we're down to two weeks. Time is running out, and with the McCain camp letting go of Iowa and New Mexico and now Colorado, he has to (as CNN loves to say) look for a mathematical way to win those magical 270 electoral votes. So minus Colorado (9 EVS and Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 EVs). The maverick dreams big though--he hopes to hold on to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada. But that won't be enough, so he's adding....wait for it... Pennsylvania. Yes, McCain is campaigning today in PENNSYLVANIA. Can I just remind his campaign that Obama has an averaged 12 point lead in this state? Jeez man, go back to Colorado, Obama's only got a 5 point lead there!

But really, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada and Pennsylvania? That's a lot of territory to hold.

This week's polling from CBS/NYTimes show the Obama-Biden team with a bump nationally from last week's debate. They are now at 54% to McCain's 41% with the same group of people who were polled before the debate. Pre-debate it was 48%-43% Obama-McCain.

Trends show the race tightening, although Obama's lead in Gallup Daily poll expanded to 11 points from yesterday's 10. He now leads McCain 52%-41%. Still, Politico is noting that Obama's lead is expanding in two key counties-- he leads 50-40 in Nevada's Washoe County and 52-43 in North Carolina's Wake County-- which may help swing those two state to his column more solidly.

====================

14 days to the election! We are now only TWO WEEKS from the Election!

AVOID THE LINES (or join the lines...)! Early voting has started in 29 states across the nation. Your state may offer the option of voting early, if you're willing to go to your local Board of Elections. Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options with links to official websites. Here is the shortlist of states and their early voting windows:

Alaska: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arkansas: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arizona: : Oct 2-31 California: Oct 6-Nov 3 Colorado: Oct 20-31 Georgia: Sept 22-Oct 31 Florida: Oct 20-Nov 2 Hawaii: Oct 21-Nov 1 Idaho: Oct 10-Nov 3 Illinois: Oct 13-30 Indiana: Oct 6-Nov 3 Iowa: Sept 25- Nov 3 Kansas: Oct 15-Nov 3 Louisiana: Oct 21-28 Maine: Oct 5-Nov 3 Montana: Oct 6- Nov 3

Nebraska: Sept 30- Nov 3 Nevada: Oct 18-31 New Mexico: Oct 7-Nov 1 North Carolina: Oct 16-Nov 1 North Dakota: Sept 25-Nov 3 Ohio: Sept 30-Nov 3 Oklahoma: Oct 31-Nov 3 South Dakota: now-Nov 3 Tennessee: Oct 15-30 Texas: Oct 20-31 Utah: Oct 23-Nov 2 Vermont: Oct 6-Nov 3 West Virginia: Oct 15-Nov 1 Wisconsin: now-Nov 3 Wyoming: Sept 25-Nov 3

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And if there are problems voting early with the machines (!!!)--Jeez, Florida-- what is your problem??-- please don't give up!!

Nevada, you're doing well, where the First Read blog says that: "Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won't be a wave; it'll be a tsunami."

CONTINUE READING...

Ground Control to Major Tom

Over the last few days, voters across the nation have gotten "the call" from John McCain-- no, not asking them to serve as McCain's VP pick, though Lord knows he needs a new one. The one informing them that you "need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist, Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home, and killed Americans." Lovely. There's also another one that tries to hit on the old "Obama is a Hollywood celebrity" idea. Do we have to have Paris Hilton make yet another video, John??? Now it comes out that McCain is using Feather, Hodges, Larson & Synhorst to make those calls, the same firm for robo-calling that was used AGAINST him in 2004. HuffPo has a good roundup of links here, including one in which McCain condemns the robo-call practice.

Another article on the cell phone phenomenon and how the opinions of younger voters wind up being underplayed in national polls as a result. "According to the estimates compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics, by the last six months of 2007, 14.5 percent of all adults were living in households that could only be reached by a cell phone, a number that had more than tripled (from 4.4 percent) since 2004. Younger Americans especially are out of reach. Mining the same NCHS study, the Pew Research Center reports that nearly a third (30.6 percent) of 18-to-24-year-olds can be reached only by cell phone....A few weeks ago, blogger Nate Silver compared the house effects of national polls that have been interviewing by cell phone with those that have not. He found that including cell phone interviews appeared to improve Obama's standing by 2 to 3 percentage points on the margin."

Before you even start to get upset about the poll numbers tightening, "That's what happens at the end of campaigns," Obama said on the Today Show this morning. "Even when there are substantial leads. And in each of these battleground states, you've got a lot of close races. One of the messages that I've had to my team is that we don't let up. We do not let up."

And Joe Biden echoes his running mate's thoughts: "Anyone who tells you this election is already decided is dead wrong. Let's not forget the 2000 election, when Al Gore was up by double digits in October. The surest way to lose a race is to slow down with the finish line in sight. We're taking no chances. We've planned the biggest get out the vote operation in history, and we need to make sure that every voter has their voice heard."

Joe's right, although a look at that 2004 Electoral vote graph show also how tight and how volatile that race was. Not that I'm sayin' we should get cocky, but this year, Obama the majority of the time with a lead over McCain.

2004:

2008:

CONTINUE READING...

Polling update: Oct. 17

"According to most polls, Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead in Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, all states that many political strategists and pollsters believe are too far gone at this late date for John McCain to win. Still, McCain's campaign soldiers on in those Democratic-leaning states, committing its most precious commodities — time and money — even as the Republican nominee struggles to lock up the red states he likely must sweep to win the presidency. It's a head-scratching strategy that is leading even some Republicans to wonder why the McCain campaign hasn't written off places such as Iowa and Pennsylvania and strategically retreated to ensure victory in more favorable red state terrain — such as Virginia and North Carolina — that it absolutely cannot afford to lose."

Meanwhile, the AP reports that there are signs that Ohio may not be the site of QUITE as many distracting shenanigans as last election cycle. Can we be hopeful? "The Supreme Court sided Friday with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations. The justices overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases."

Also, note that if you're going to the polls, be careful what you wear. Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Dish, sounds a note of caution from a North Carolina early voter who saw a woman wearing campaign paraphernalia while in the voting line. "An older man, also in line, told the woman she could not vote because she was electioneering. Another man spoke up and said that the woman could vote so long as she wasn't arm-twisting anyone to vote for her candidate." Everyone, so you know, wearing campaign stuff (McCain buttons, "Obama Girl" T-shirts, Ralph Nader baseball caps) to the polls is called "passive electioneering," and there is speculation that voters will be turned away at the polls for it. In Pennsylvania back in September, GOP officials "called on the Rendell administration to enforce a little-known, decades-old law that they say bans such things." According to Snopes.com, which offers this information on the subject, rules vary from state to state, and there are no clear answers. So I say, take no chances. Wear plain clothes, no buttons, no "I've got a crush on Obama" T-Shirts, folks. It's just for a few minutes.

CONTINUE READING...

Cognitive Dissonance Edition

Ben Smith from Politico reports on this email he received from a Republican political consultant who was conducting focus groups for McCain in the Midwest. I think that this pretty much defines the phrase "cognitive dissonance":

The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:

54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."

The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack."

THANK YOU. THANK YOU, JESUS. I don't care, Really, I don't. Just vote for Obama. Pull that lever. We'll sort everything else out in your little brains after November 4.

CONTINUE READING...

Polling Update: October 14, 2008

McCain walks into this debate with the happy (or I guess unhappy if you're him) news that he's behind pretty much, well, everywhere. Fivethirtyeight.com calculates Obama's electoral vote count right now as 361, Electoral-vote.com has Obama with 357 electoral votes, Pollster.com gives him 333 votes, and RealClearPolitics.com gives him 286 votes even not counting the toss-ups. In national polls, Obama has a double digit lead over McCain in seven polls: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and CBS News/Times (+14).

Plus, Obama has taken definitive leads in battleground state polling from CNN/Time. (Results of the latest CNN Poll are first, and RCP's averages are in parentheses)

Colorado: Obama 51-47 (RCP Avg: Obama 50-45)
Florida: Obama 51-46 (RCP: Obama 49-45)
Missouri: McCain 49-48 (RCP: Obama 49-47)
Georgia: McCain 51-45 (RCP: McCain 51-44)

Personally, I continue to believe that polling is not capturing a vast number of newly registered Obama voters, and that it's underestimating his support among young voters. I'm going to go out on a limb here (knocking wood the whole time) and say that Obama will win thoe states by a larger margin than most people suspect in those states. You heard it here first.

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20 days to the election!

CONTINUE READING...

Reboot!

Hey, look-ee! After telling us yesterday that he would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some, turns out McCain DOES have a plan to share with us. Drum roll if you please.....

In a plan in which most of the benefits would go to older voters, Mr. McCain proposed that people 59 and up who withdraw money from IRAs or 401(k) retirement plans in 2009 and 2010 pay a tax rate of 10 percent on the money rather than their higher normal rates. That part of the plan would cost $36 billion, based on the McCain campaign's internal estimates.

In addition, Mr. McCain proposed a reduction in the tax on long-term capital gains to 7.5 percent from 15 percent in 2009 and 2010 at an estimated cost of $10 billion; an acceleration in the tax write-off for stock losses, allowing Americans to deduct $15,000 in losses a year for the tax years 2008 and 2009 (current rules allow deductions up to $3,000 in losses); a suspension on the tax on unemployment insurance benefits in 2008 and 2009; and a government guarantee on 100 percent of all savings accounts for six months.

I especially loved this part of the McCain speech, which unveiled the plan in Blue Bell, PA.

Mr. McCain sharply criticized Mr. Obama for his fiscal policies and said repeatedly that his rival, who has pledged tax cuts for 95 percent of American families, would in fact raise taxes.

"He is an eloquent speaker, but even he can't turn a record of supporting higher taxes into a credible promise to cut taxes," Mr. McCain said. "What he promises today is the opposite of what he has done his entire career. Perhaps never in history have the American people been asked to risk so much based on so little."

Oh. As opposed to you, Mr. Consistency, who just voted for the regulations you've been trying to dismantle, lo, these many years. We can trust you to do what you say you would because you're the guy who "suspended" his campaign til the financial crisis was fixed, then "unsuspended" it, even though clearly, things are not "fixed" now. The guy who said he wouldn't resort to smear tactics, then did. The guy whose campaign people said he'd have an economic plan yesterday, then said you "would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some," and then announced your new plan the next day. You even lied to David Letterman. Oh yeah. YOU'RE reliable. We can take a risk on you.

Obama's people come back with their retort, which is much more on point than mine above, I grant you: "John McCain's latest gambit is a day late and 101 million middle-class families short. McCain's plan would spend $300 billion to bailout the same irresponsible Wall Street banks that got us into this mess without doing anything to help jumpstart job growth for America's middle class. His plan continues to provide no tax relief at all to 101 million hardworking families, including 97 percent of senior citizens, and it does nothing to cut taxes for small businesses or give them access to credit. Senator McCain also shows how little he understands the economy by offering lower capital gains rates in a year in which people don't have an awful lot of capital gains. His trickle-down, ideological recipes won't strengthen our economy and grow our middle-class, but Barack Obama's pro-jobs, pro-family economic policies will," said Obama-Biden campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

In spite of all, though, McCain's campaign continues to put a bright face on a bleak poll-number situation. McCain's people continue to hope that their boy can pull off the same kind of "come-from-behind" magic that Ronald Reagan did in 1980, but at WaPo, they point out that in the weeks leading up to the election, Carter actually did not maintain a large lead over Reagan and didn't have the kind of momentum we're seeing for Obama. "A post-election summary of polls by then-CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky shows that at no point over the final two weeks did Carter have a lead bigger than three percentage points.

CONTINUE READING...

Schlepping toward November

Signs that the Great Schlep is working in Florida? You heard about it via Sarah Silverman's hilarious video, and energetic young people have answered the call. From CNN comes news of a young man who schlepped out to Tamarac FL to convince his grandparents. "When Bender recently returned to his grandparents' retirement community in Tamarac, Florida, near Fort Lauderdale, he was greeted with several surprises. Months of telephone conversations and his trip had paid off: His grandparents told him shortly after he arrived that they were going to support Obama.

The next surprise was that his schlep had generated interest around their retirement community. A lot of interest. So many other seniors wanted to hear about Obama that the venue for a meeting on the subject had to be changed from the Furst's living room to a ballroom in the community's clubhouse."

Also, the latest CBS/ NY Times poll gives Obama a BIG lead over McCain "The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin wasjust three points." Coupled with the latest LA Times/ Bloomberg poll showing Obama 9 points ahead, all that gives Obama an averaged lead of 8.1 points over his opponent according to Real Clear Politics' calculations. But John McCain has Obama right where he wants him.

And for your amusement, some video of Obama canvassing in Ohio that proves that he leaves no vote unturned,. not even the spider-vote.

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21 days to the election! That's just THREE WEEKS!

Don't forget, you could be voting now! Your state may offer the option of voting early, if you're willing to go to your local board of Elections. Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options with links to official websites. Here is the shortlist of states and their early voting windows:

Alaska: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arkansas: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arizona: : Oct 2-31 California: Oct 6-Nov 3 Colorado: Oct 20-31 Georgia: Sept 22-Oct 31 Florida: Oct 20-Nov 2 Hawaii: Oct 21-Nov 1 Idaho: Oct 10-Nov 3 Illinois: Oct 13-30 Indiana: Oct 6-Nov 3 Iowa: Sept 25- Nov 3 Kansas: Oct 15-Nov 3 Louisiana: Oct 21-28 Maine: Oct 5-Nov 3 Montana: Oct 6- Nov 3

Nebraska: Sept 30- Nov 3 Nevada: Oct 18-31 New Mexico: Oct 7-Nov 1 North Carolina: Oct 16-Nov 1 North Dakota: Sept 25-Nov 3 Ohio: Sept 30-Nov 3 Oklahoma: Oct 31-Nov 3 South Dakota: now-Nov 3 Tennessee: Oct 15-30 Texas: Oct 20-31 Utah: Oct 23-Nov 2 Vermont: Oct 6-Nov 3 West Virginia: Oct 15-Nov 1 Wisconsin: now-Nov 3 Wyoming: Sept 25-Nov 3

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Also don't forget to check Project Vote, which lists the names and addresses of purged voters in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas (so far). If you live in one of these states, check the list TODAY to see if you have been purged and also check for friends, relatives, and neighbors." If you find yourself or someone you know on one of these lists, they may be able to protest being removed from the rolls.

* * * * * * * *
Last debate is tomorrow Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 9pm EDT (6 pm PDT)at Hofstra University's Hofstra Arena in Hempstead, New York, moderated by Bob Schieffer, CBS News chief Washington correspondent and host of Face the Nation. Let's hope he does better than Tom Brokaw. This debate will focus on domestic and economic policy.

CONTINUE READING...

Through the Looking Glass II

Christopher Buckley son of the founder of the National Review, William F. Buckley Jr., apologizes to his father's memory and then jumps into the tank with us. In an endorsement on Tina Brown's newly launched Daily Beast, Buckley says, "As for Senator Obama: He has exhibited throughout a "first-class temperament," pace Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.'s famous comment about FDR...I've read Obama's books, and they are first-rate. He is that rara avis, the politician who writes his own books. Imagine... Obama has in him—I think, despite his sometimes airy-fairy "We are the people we have been waiting for" silly rhetoric—the potential to be a good, perhaps even great leader. He is, it seems clear enough, what the historical moment seems to be calling for. So, I wish him all the best. We are all in this together. Necessity is the mother of bipartisanship. And so, for the first time in my life, I'll be pulling the Democratic lever in November."

Buckley also notes dryly that his father once said to him, "after a right-winger who fancied himself a WFB protégé had said something transcendently and provocatively cretinous, 'You know, I've spent my entire life time separating the Right from the kooks.'" Too bad Bill, you lost on that score.

Speaking of the kooks, from the Times Union: "Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's last name is spelled "Osama" on hundreds of absentee ballots mailed out this week to voters in Rensselaer County.The misspelling, which elections officials on both sides of the aisle insist was simply a typo, is causing embarrassment for the county." Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I say this is no "accident."

CONTINUE READING...